Emerging Markets Economics Update Why there’s less to the EM sell-off than meets the eye Warnings that the market turmoil in EMs over the past few weeks could presage a spate of crises similar to the late 1990s look overdone. A more sober assessment reveals three key points. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How will demographics affect the world economy? Slowing population growth and population ageing will weigh heavily on economic growth in the coming decade or two, particularly in Europe and Asia. These forces will be only partly offset by increased... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rebound in retail sales in April provides encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weather-related weakness in Q1. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Little movement in rents or yields Recent weakness in growth is expected to be short-lived, but given the slowing already seen, we have trimmed our annual growth forecast for 2018 from 1.8% y/y to 1.6% y/y. However, occupier demand... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q1, Breakdown) Q1’s 0.3% rise in German GDP marked a weak start to the year. But temporary factors were partly to blame and the strength of investment in particular is an encouraging sign that the upturn still has... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose last week as net imports jumped despite a widening of the Brent-WTI spread. The spread is likely to remain wide over the next few months as surging output and logistical... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Deal with China doesn’t address underlying tensions The deal the US has apparently reached with China averts a full-blown trade war and provides another example of the administration backing down from tough rhetoric on trade in return for relatively... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary business surveys for May, published by Markit today, suggest that the moderate slowdown in economic growth may have continued in the second quarter, at least in the euro-zone and Japan. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales declined by 1.5% m/m in April, and downward revisions to the previous three months’ readings show that sales have struggled to gain traction so far this year. But, with the inventory of... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Majority of markets overvalued Although property yields ticked down only slightly in Q1, rises in both government bond yields and equity dividend yields meant that property valuations deteriorated. For the first time since we have... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Swedish wage growth ever pick up? We expect wage growth in Sweden to pick up to around 3% by the end of the year. This should be enough for the Riksbank to start raising interest rates in December. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May.) The pick-up in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in May suggests that the recent weakness in retail sales is abating. And with real wages rising again, we are upbeat about the prospects for consumer... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The recent rise in oil prices did not stop CPI inflation from taking another step down in April. But we doubt that inflation’s fall significantly reduces the chance of an interest rate hike in the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
