Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) Despite a bounce back in March, our New Zealand Activity Proxy is still pointing to a modest easing in GDP growth over the first quarter as a whole. And we expect growth will continue to struggle this... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q1) Peru’s strong growth in Q1 supports our view that the recovery should continue in the coming quarters, and that GDP will grow by 3.5% over this year as a whole. 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Rising US bond yields and trade tensions have dominated headlines over the past month. But there is no sign that either has had a big impact on flows of capital in or out of China. We estimate that... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rates beginning to squeeze household finances Households’ balance sheets are still in good shape, with debt burdens stabilising well below their pre-crisis levels and delinquencies low. However, the further rise in newly delinquent credit card... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Taper Tantrum five years on The sell-off that has gripped EM financial markets over the past few weeks has raised parallels with the Taper Tantrum that occurred almost five years ago to the day. However, economic and financial... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) Global aluminium output fell slightly in April. This was largely the result of lower production in North America, where temporary disruptions weighed on supply, and Western Europe. We expect growth in... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro 2.0: messy debt default on the cards The victory for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s presidential election paves the way for an escalation of US sanctions – possibly on the oil sector – and a messy sovereign debt default and restructuring... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1 2018) Nigeria’s economic recovery lost momentum in Q1, but we still think that growth will strengthen later this year. Higher oil revenues should provide a big boost to incomes in Q2. 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Thailand’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in five years in Q1. While we think growth has now peaked, the economy should remain in good health over the coming quarters, helped by supportive... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil rallies on Iran jitters Oil prices continued to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, this week. However, heightened geopolitical risks... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising rates add to pressure on housing Home sales dropped to a five-year low in April and the surge in interest rates suggests the downward trend in sales has further to run. Although the Bank of Canada is still on the fence regarding the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the strength in jobs growth last? This week’s figures suggested that the labour market is in rude health. Admittedly, some of the timelier measures of employment growth have started to weaken. And with the labour market now... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are equity investors right to be relaxed about higher oil prices? 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Duque presidency mean for Colombia? Centre-right candidate Iván Duque looks set to win the first round of Colombia’s presidential election next week, and if he also prevails in the second round – as seems likely – he will inherit an... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
