UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Mar.) UK house prices are still growing, albeit at a subdued pace. But prices in London are falling, while rental growth there has also paused. Looking ahead, we expect price growth across the country to... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) South African inflation edged up to 4.5% y/y in April, following a VAT hike at the start of the month. Taking that together with the recent fall in the rand, we think that the MPC will leave interest... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s fall in the euro-zone PMI yet again partly reflected temporary factors, but the continued softness of the surveys in Q2 is certainly a concern. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira collapse to trigger rate hikes The plunge in the Turkish lira over the past few days has been steeper than that which triggered abrupt monetary tightening in 2014 and 2017. We expect the MPC to hold an interim meeting over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Corporate bond yields likely to rise a lot further Although the yields of emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have already risen substantially since the start of February, we expect them to climb much further. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising inflation expectations weaken the doves' case The recent rebound in inflation expectations is significant not only because it provides another reason to expect core inflation to trend higher this year, but also because it further weakens the case... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The latest Russian activity figures suggest that GDP growth picked up to about 1.5% y/y at the start of Q2. These data also provide early evidence that the tightening of US sanctions and the fall in... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update High oil prices threaten demand growth We expect global oil consumption to rise steadily this year on the back of strong economic growth. However, if oil prices remain around their current levels or rise further, consumption growth could... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the sterling boost over? While the beneficial effects on exports of the pound’s depreciation may now be fading somewhat, it is too early to conclude that the sterling boost to growth is over. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the manufacturing sector has failed to regain momentum so far in Q2 after the poor start to the year. But with firms’ expectations for output ahead... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The implications of Switzerland’s “Vollgeld” referendum A “yes” vote in Switzerland’s sovereign money referendum next month would completely overturn the current monetary system. It would constrain the Swiss National Bank’s approach to monetary policy... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures have got the new fiscal year off to a good start and might give the Chancellor a bit more wiggle room to loosen the purse strings in the Autumn Budget. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will probably reduce its ETF purchases The BoJ could continue buying ETFs at the current pace for a long time since its purchases are small relative to the size of the stock market. But the Bank reckons that the stock market is now close... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
