UK Economics Update Rising oil prices won’t prevent a consumer recovery Fears that the recent rise in oil prices will severely dampen consumer spending are probably somewhat overdone. Indeed, even if oil prices remain at current levels, higher inflation would eat into... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight Italy’s fragile situation If sentiment towards Italy deteriorates as a result of the current political situation, we could see renewed capital flight and a further worsening of Italy’s already-high TARGET2 liabilities. But... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: more to monetary policy shift than meets the eye The decision by Turkey’s central bank to begin using the one-week repo rate as its key policy tool looks less like an effort to simplify its monetary policy framework (as has been suggested by some)... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.) March’s strong gain in the Case-Shiller national house price index appears consistent with some recent evidence that house price expectations have begun to rise. But it is harder to reconcile with the... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Key questions about Italy After the President refused to appoint a eurosceptic finance minister, Italy is heading for a fresh election. Provided that Five Star Movement and the League do not call for a referendum on euro... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household credit growth slows sharply Rising interest rates and the recent tightening of mortgage lending standards are now having a marked impact on mortgage lending, with the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate of mortgage... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property investment is weaker than meets the eye Real estate investment has recently returned to double digit growth. But a closer look at the data reveals that this recovery has been entirely driven by a jump in developers’ land purchases, which is... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Duque on course to inherit strengthening economy The victory for centre-right candidate Iván Duque in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday was largely expected and, as such, has had little impact on local financial markets... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and lending data provide further evidence that economic growth has peaked. While households’ and firms’ demand for loans is still fairly strong, the deteriorating situation in... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Heightened uncertainty in Malaysia post-election In a massive political upset, the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition led by Najib Razak was ousted by a resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s 14 th... 28th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A snap election would be good for Spain Spain’s Government is teetering and a snap election is on the cards. Given the rise of populists in Italy, an increase in political uncertainty in Spain seems concerning. But while the situation is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations The NAFTA negotiations appeared to be winding down quietly since there was no longer enough time left for the US Congress to pass legislation before the end of this year. But President Donald Trump... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts Our forecast for rental value growth in 2018 is similar to that of the IPF consensus, but there is a greater degree of variation in forecasts for capital value growth. However, over coming years there... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Signs of slowdown not yet a major concern The latest data provide further evidence that the world economy has lost some momentum. Growth of world trade has softened significantly in recent months, mirroring the weakness in the purchasing... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
