Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recent fall in gold prices? The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi resilient amidst EM currency sell-off With rising US bond yields putting EM currencies under pressure, the renminbi stands out as a beacon of stability. It has only edged down against the dollar and has continued strengthening in trade... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes likely in Indonesia amid rupiah worries The performance of the rupiah will continue to determine the near-term outlook for monetary policy in Indonesia. With the currency likely to remain under downward pressure as Treasury yields in the US... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does the Argentine peso have much further to fall? Following its near-20% drop so far this year, Argentina’s real effective exchange rate looks pretty close to its ‘fair’ value – we estimate that it probably needs to fall by a modest 5% or so from... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why the MPC won’t fall too far behind the Fed The Monetary Policy Committee’s latest inflation forecasts imply that UK interest rates will remain substantially below US rates for the foreseeable future. But there are reasons why the gap may not... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Why hasn’t rapid wage growth pushed up inflation? Rapid wage growth in Central Europe has yet to feed into a meaningful pick-up in inflation. Part of the softness of Central European inflation reflects weak price pressures in the euro-zone. But it... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions fall further? Transactions fell sharply in March. But that was probably down to a combination of weak activity from the end of last year, as well as the recent bout of extreme weather. As a result, we think the... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Following outright falls in employment in February and March, the pace of job creation returned to a more normal rate in April. But even if this pace is sustained, we expect wage growth to remain... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil shrugs off rising dollar The GSCI commodity price index has surged over the last month, despite the rise in the US dollar. However, the rise in the broad index is entirely due to the jump in oil prices – which was driven by... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will the slide in EM currencies continue? Emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen sharply on average against the dollar since the middle of last month, and we forecast that they will weaken further between now and the end of next year. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week as net imports slumped. However, we remain of the view that surging US oil output will weigh on prices later in the year. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (April.) Following the string of weaker outturns so far over 2018, investment activity softened further in April. However, if we are right that GDP growth will recover over the remainder of the year... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
