US Economics Weekly Will rising oil prices hold the economy back? The rally in crude oil prices in recent months ought to be a negative for a net oil importer like the US, but we don’t expect the increase, up to now at least, to prevent an acceleration in GDP growth... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pulling down our currency forecasts We expected 2018 to be a year of weakness for Latin American currencies, but the recent falls against the dollar have pushed a number of exchange rates through our year-end forecasts already. We’re... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil takes a tumble Agricultural commodities were some of the star performers this week as a truckers’ strike in Brazil raised concerns about supply. In contrast, metals prices struggled, as the trade talks between China... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) Despite the rise in underlying durable goods orders in April, the slowdown in business equipment investment in the first quarter appears to have carried over into the second quarter, with little... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Early signs of a consumer revival Annual consumer spending growth ground to its slowest pace in six years in Q1. Alongside a string of weak early indicators of spending in Q2, that called into question our forecast of a rebound in... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What’s holding single-family starts back? Despite high homebuilder confidence, single-family housing starts have lost momentum since the start of the year. A combination of lot and labour shortages, and the high price of materials, is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB’s hopes on growth be dashed? The “account” of the ECB’s April meeting, released this week, revealed that policymakers had taken a pretty sanguine view of the weakness of survey indicators and hard data in the first few months of... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.1% y/y increase in global steel production in April, driven by higher output in China, India, the EU and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Hard evidence of a landlord sell-off Landlords are trimming their portfolios, reducing the number of privately rented homes in the dwelling stock for the first time in 18 years. For now, there are few signs that these additional sellers... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German retail well beyond peak occupier demand Retail letting volumes in Germany’s main cities have been trending downwards over the past few years, putting upwards pressure on the spread between prime and secondary yields. With demand for... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will OPEC raise output? The next OPEC meeting on 22nd June will probably decide the direction of oil prices over the rest of the year. This Energy Watch will examine how OPEC is progressing towards the aims it set out when... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM problems concentrated in Argentina & Turkey The Argentine Peso and Turkish Lira came under fire this month, prompting policymakers in both countries to aggressively hike interest rates. The two currencies have firmed a bit, but are still down... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Second Estimate (Q1) While today’s figures confirmed that the economy slowed sharply in Q1, we doubt that this will prevent the MPC from raising rates again in August. 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Apr.) March’s dip in house purchase approvals was reversed in April, suggesting that a renewed slide in lending is not underway. That’s said, with buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales still softening... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The stabilisation of the German Ifo in May is encouraging and provides some hope that a rebound in growth is on the cards in Q2. We doubt that the economy will regain all of its lost momentum, but it... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
