US Economics Weekly Corporate sector well placed to cope with higher rates Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will follow Indonesia higher? The Philippines, India and Korea are all likely to follow Bank Indonesia by hiking interest rates over the next couple of months. But unlike Indonesia, these three are set to tighten policy from a... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The firming in core inflation and the new-found strength of retail sales will increase speculation that the Bank of Canada is going to increase interest rates again later this year. Our view is still... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come? Data released this week added to the evidence that soft global demand and the previous appreciation of the euro have taken a toll on euro-zone exports. We doubt that exports will regain all of their... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q1 was broad based and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our above-consensus forecast for... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Running out of steam A number of indicators suggest that the current cycle is running out of steam. Although investment across the euro-zone was up compared to the first quarter of last year, on a four-quarter basis, it... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will rising oil prices trigger fiscal loosening in the Gulf? The recent rally in oil prices has already prompted governments across the Gulf to shift away from the harsh austerity of recent years. But long-term oil price expectations are still low and the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investment market losing momentum Economic growth is likely to have softened in both Western Europe and Emerging Europe in Q1. Nevertheless, take-up of office space stayed strong and rental values in all three sectors were stable or... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? The lesson from EMs that have been forced to turn to the IMF for financial support in the past is that Argentina will need a combination of front-loaded fiscal tightening, reforms at the central bank... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Agriculture in Africa: An underappreciated opportunity Most African economies remain heavily-dependent on the agricultural sector. Indeed, weather-related disruptions often play a key role in determining swings in headline economic growth. The sector is... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household spending growth likely to rebound in Q2 The slowdown in advanced economies in Q1 was partly a result of weak consumption growth. But we think that household spending will recover in Q2 and grow at a decent pace during the rest of 2018. 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising rates a headwind for the economy The continued surge in market interest rates will become an increasing headwind for the economy, especially next year when the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Admittedly, the level of interest rates... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates The bout of softer-than-expected inflation and activity data which caused the MPC to step back from hiking Bank Rate in May is certainly reason for caution. But like the MPC, we think that temporary... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions still loose, despite sell-off So far, there is little evidence that the sell-off in EM financial markets has fed through into a broader tightening of financial conditions. As a result, it is unlikely to have much impact on EM GDP... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle takes a pause The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, rather than cut them again, comes on the back of a pick-up in underlying price pressures as well as the recent sell-off in EM... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
