Canada Economics Update Bank takes a more hawkish view The Bank of Canada left its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today but issued a slightly more hawkish statement, which will raise expectations of a rate hike later this year. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might cause property yields to rise sharply? In the absence of a sharp surge in euro-zone inflation, a fresh recession or protracted stagnation, or a major escalation of current political tensions, property yields are more likely to drift slowly... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets drop as Trump pulls out of Iran’s nuclear deal The US administration’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, coming alongside the recent EM sell-off, means that it has been a terrible month for financial markets across the Middle East and... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why this time really is different The recent turmoil in EM financial markets has invoked comparisons to the debt crises of the 1980s and 1990s but these look wide of the mark. Those crises had their roots in large external financing... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are markets right to reassess the Fed rate outlook? We still expect that domestic economic conditions will prompt the Fed to hike its policy rate a further three times this year and twice in the first half of next year. But that view is based on the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The 0.4% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q1 was modest but will go some way to allaying concerns that the economic recovery has stalled altogether. The truck drivers’ strike that has gripped parts of the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are rising house price expectations a concern? House price expectations have risen to an eight-year high on some measures, which raises the risk of a dangerous upward spiral in price growth developing. However, tight mortgage lending standards... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Waning demand for coal to weigh on prices Warmer weather, slower economic growth in China and the rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should help to reverse the recent jump in demand for coal and reduce prices over the... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) After falling only slightly in May, the EC’s measure of economic sentiment provides some reassurance that the softness in activity in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp slowdown. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) At a regional level, May’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a bit stronger than in April, but the latest readings still support our view that GDP growth in CEE... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Bank Indonesia governor prioritises rupiah stability Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked rates by 25bp today (its second increase in two weeks). We expect further hikes later this year, but we doubt that a repeat of the aggressive tightening cycle seen in 2013 is... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1) & Swiss KOF The Swedish economy made a strong start to 2018 and the outlook is positive. Healthy growth is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise interest rates at the end of... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth stabilises before the sell-off Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth stabilised in Q1 and early signs point to growth having picked up at the start of Q2. The recent market stress is likely to push a handful of economies (notably... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: A weak month for local markets Most African currencies weakened against the US dollar this month, but avoided the sharp falls seen elsewhere in the EM world. Zambian markets, however, struggled due to fears of hidden debts. 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
