Asia Economics Weekly What next for growth? GDP growth across Emerging Asia edged up slightly in the first quarter of the year, and should continue to hold up relatively well in the near term, despite the drag from higher oil prices and weaker... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the Swiss and Norwegian economies continued to perform well in Q2 after decent starts to the year. Sweden’s PMI was yet again quite weak, but other survey... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) & Czech GDP (Q1) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, reinforcing our view that regional growth has peaked. The PMI plunged to a nine-year low in Turkey, which is the first sign that the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update A boom but no bust? Current forecasts for commercial property prices to plateau rather than peak would represent a significant break from the boom/bust cycles of the past. Yet while some parts of the market look... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) House prices fell at a faster rate in May and the recent slump in the number of properties sold relative to the number listed suggests that prices may soon be falling by about 5% a year. And that’s... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish lira? Last week’s emergency rate hike by Turkey’s central bank has caused a rebound in the lira and past experience suggests that the rally may have a bit further to run over the coming weeks. But there are... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a dip in net imports and strong demand from refineries. But the pick-up in crude production is more than sufficient to meet the increase in demand, which... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina the exception rather than the rule Argentina’s currency crisis has put the spotlight on the country’s growing economic fragilities, but vulnerabilities in the region’s other major economies have diminished in recent years. Current... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Italy turmoil boosts Swiss franc and government bonds The recent political turmoil in Italy gave the Swiss franc and Nordic & Swiss government bonds a boost at the end of May as investors sought safe havens. Stronger exchange rates weighed on equities in... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How could Italy’s problems affect Emerging Europe? Recent developments in Italy do not pose an immediate threat to economies in Emerging Europe but a significant escalation in the crisis would cause problems for countries in the region, particularly... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Stage is set for a rate hike The consensus is expecting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep rates on hold at the upcoming meeting that concludes on Wednesday 6th June. But the hawkish tone of the previous meeting’s policy... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2018) The unexpectedly weak 1.3% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP means that a July rate hike by the Bank of Canada suddenly looks a lot less of a done deal than it did with the release of the more... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP growth surged to a two-year high in Q1. The data are much-maligned, but the broad trajectory of a pick-up in growth seems reasonable, and we think that growth will remain strong over the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers bear the brunt of the sell-off Frontier financial markets have been among the main victims of the recent EM sell-off. The Argentine peso has been by far the worst performing frontier currency, falling by around 17% against the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
