Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to regional divergences The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI nudged down in May, but the more interesting story lies in the regional divergences, with readings in Latin America and Emerging Europe dropping but those in Asia... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Despite the sharp rebound in core inflation this year, there seems to be a growing belief in the markets that the Fed is now prepared to allow inflation to rise above the 2% target without stepping up... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in focus It has been a busy week on the news front. The early part of the week was dominated by the political crisis in Italy, which weighed on the euro. Later in the week, President Trump announced that he... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, which has fallen significantly since the start of the year, slipped again in May. That said, it is still consistent with world GDP growth rebounding in the second... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s hawkishness already looks premature The Bank of Canada issued a relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday this week, which increased speculation that another interest rate hike was coming, possibly as soon as July. But within... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in May provides further evidence to suggest that GDP growth is set for a decent rebound in the second quarter. On past form, the ISM index is at a level... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Italian troubles shouldn’t worry the MPC While the fall in gilt yields over the past fortnight partly reflects an increase in safe haven demand, expectations for future interest rates have also slipped back. It seems unlikely, though, that... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities shrug off the stronger dollar Commodity price indices surged in May despite a jump in the US dollar. Oil prices got a boost from the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran which threaten to reduce oil output by up to 1m bpd... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May’s employment report had everything needed to support a June rate hike by the Fed; including a solid 223,000 gain in payrolls, a decline in the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8% and a... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about rising GCC public debt? Government debt across the Gulf has risen sharply over the past few years, but only in the smaller countries of Bahrain and Oman do we consider it to be a major source of concern. Financial support... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the sector is putting in a strong performance in Q2, after the poor start to the year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.) Today’s manufacturing PMI – which fell to 49.8 – provides yet more evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in early 2018. We retain the view that growth will pick up later this year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s May PMIs suggest solid economic growth China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for May point to a firm economic performance and are broadly consistent with the gains in industrial metals and coal prices last month. However, we... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
