Energy Chart Pack Surging US output weighs on WTI Oil prices were volatile in May, rising in the first half of the month as President Trump re-imposed sanctions on Iran, then falling in the second half due to rising US production and speculation that... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ‘Ramaphoria’ stalls in Q1 South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q1, underlining the scale of the task facing President Ramaphosa. Growth will pick up later this year, but will remain weak by historical standards. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (May) May’s Markit/CIPS report on services provides us with further reassurance that the weakness in GDP growth in Q1 will prove temporary and increases the chances of the MPC pressing ahead with an... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May) April’s euro-zone retail sales data imply that the consumer sector fared a little better in Q2 than it did in Q1. Nevertheless, May’s Composite PMI is consistent with the pace of GDP growth remaining... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy returned to growth in Q1 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy emerged from recession in Q1. More timely data indicate that a raft of public sector bonuses is finally providing some support to the non-oil sector. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) May’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor reported the strongest year-on-year increase in sales in over a year, suggesting that consumers are embracing the end of the real pay squeeze. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Apr.) April’s rise in private sector production suggests that Sweden’s economy got off to a decent start to Q2. While the construction sector is likely to remain weak, overall we expect the economy to... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf suggest that after a soft start to the year, growth in the non-oil sector is picking up. Egypt’s PMI suggests that pipeline price pressures are subdued, supporting... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not that worried by Royal Commission While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.5% again today, the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it is not too worried about the economic implications of the Royal Commission... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Latin America? The rise in oil prices over the past six-nine months will have a mixed effect on economies in Latin America, with Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador the biggest winners, and Chile the biggest loser. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Only a mild rebound in 2018 Despite higher oil prices, Angola’s economy will grow by just 1.5% this year, less than consensus expectations. Conditions will remain weak in 2019, though reforms could provide a boost further out. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending outlook brightens Abstracting from the effects of the snow in Q1, the big picture remains one of very feeble consumer spending. But things are starting to look up. CPI inflation now appears to be on a firm downward... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May) Following a strengthening in activity in April, todays’ CIPS/Markit Construction PMI suggests the recovery in commercial construction activity has been sustained. But falls in the future business... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) Despite the sharp rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 12.1% y/y, the rally in lira over the past week or so means that we think that the central bank will decide to stand pat at its MPC meeting on... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr.) After stalling in March, the stronger than anticipated rise in retail sales in April was welcome news. Nevertheless, with household budgets still under pressure, we continue to expect consumption... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
