Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) After having been a big factor behind the strong rise in GDP in the first quarter, April’s international trade data suggest that net exports won’t be as supportive in the second quarter. So just one... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan protests unlikely to upend IMF deal Ongoing protests in Jordan have already prompted the resignation of the prime minister and King Abdullah seems to be taking further steps to defuse the situation. The new tax law which triggered the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed balance sheet confusion rears its head again Fears that a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet will somehow reduce the amount of dollars available to EMs to finance their external liabilities is grounded in a fundamental... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What to make of BNM head’s resignation The resignation of Malaysia’s central bank governor amid accusations of corruption at the Bank is an encouraging sign that the new government’s anti-corruption drive is gathering pace. The new... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Will the lead rally be sustained? Over the past month, the price of lead has surged. This appears to be the result of a clampdown on recycling plants in China, which has reduced scrap lead supply since the start of the year. However... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil increased last week due to higher net imports and strong growth in US crude production. Indeed, we expect the rapid rise in US output to weigh on crude prices later in the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Rising global oil prices will put upward pressure on Chinese inflation over the next few months. But with food and core inflation both likely to edge down, we expect headline consumer price inflation... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Recent market turmoil will not derail the Fed Despite political tensions in Europe and the uncertainty over trade policy, we expect the Fed to press ahead and raise interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. With second quarter GDP growth... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What are the prospects for the leisure sector? In contrast to the problems on the high street, leisure sector fundamentals look strong. The outlook for leisure rental value growth is positive, supported by rising real incomes and solid underlying... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The April trade data suggest that net exports are on track to provide a sizeable boost to second quarter GDP growth, which we now expect to be as high as 4% annualised. 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a six-month low of $1.9bn in April, from $3.9bn, as imports fell back to more normal levels and exports ticked higher. The rise in exports was led by gains in... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Inflationary pressures in Iceland set to grow The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with imported inflation rising and domestic price pressures set to grow, we see the Bank raising interest rates later... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) A 2.7% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase left this measure of active housing demand unchanged compared to this time last year. A rise in mortgage interest rates, to a seven-year high... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Real’s fate now lies with political developments The fall in the real over the past couple of months means that, judged on macroeconomic fundamentals at least, the currency no longer looks overvalued. The big risk over the next six months is that... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pulls the trigger The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to hike its repo rate today surprised the consensus, but not us. We think that elevated core inflation will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
