Global Markets Update Italian equities unlikely to stage a big rebound Although investors have become less concerned about the political situation in Italy, we do not expect a significant rebound in Italian equities, which have already come under pressure again this week... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (May) Although headline inflation rose in May to its highest level in over seven years, the core rate fell to a nine-month low. This will be a concern to the SNB, especially given the appreciation of the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia stands out as one of the few advanced economies that strengthened at the start of the year. But with households struggling even before the Royal Commission has prompted tighter credit... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow again The dramatic surge in US oil output so far this year has weighed on the price of WTI and widened the Brent-WTI spread. But we still expect US production to grow strongly in 2018-19. An increase in... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico tariffs raise tensions The direct effect of Mexico’s new tariffs on imports from the US will be moderate. But the move will make the process of renegotiating Nafta even more difficult. The peso has fallen sharply in... 5th June 2018 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a consumer revival The news on the economy has improved considerably over the past few weeks. Indeed, May’s PMI surveys suggest that GDP growth could accelerate to 0.4% or so this quarter, up from 0.1% in Q1. Meanwhile... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions impact The imposition of more stringent US financial sanctions in April seems to have resulted in a long-lasting premium in Russia’s currency and bond market. But there has been little convincing evidence of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is Italy a worry for Switzerland and the Nordics? Political turmoil in Italy has rocked Swiss and Nordic financial markets over the past few weeks, but the economic fallout is likely to remain limited. That said, if the situation in Italy worsens... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation in the Philippines close to peaking Having nudged higher again in May, inflation in the Philippines probably has a little further to rise. But with food and energy price pressures set to ease over the coming months and the impact of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation was unchanged at 2.4% y/y in May, providing further evidence that the ruble’s fall in April has not led to a build-up in price pressures. This should give the central bank confidence... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: Net trade increasingly dragging on growth GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central Europe showed that, while domestic demand remained strong in Q1, net trade dragged on growth across the region. With capacity constraints starting to bite... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production is encouraging given the sector’s weak showing in Q1. But the trucker’s strike that paralysed the country for nine days last... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals shrug off strong dollar For the most part, metals prices rose in May despite the dollar appreciation. Robust demand and tighter supply buoyed the prices of aluminium, nickel and lead. However, we still think that slower... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Divergence with the dollar unlikely to last In the last month, commodity prices have risen or held steady, despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. We think that the long-run inverse relationship will be restored in the second half of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
