Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi still bucking EM trend The renminbi has weakened a little against the US dollar in recent weeks. But the Chinese currency has continued to appreciate in trade-weighted terms. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar has bounced... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel unlikely to hold on to price gains Tighter supply and strong demand have led to a rapid drawdown of nickel exchange stocks and given a lift to prices. But with supply starting to pick up and more subdued demand growth, we expect the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Unsecured lending to households rebounded in April, providing some reassurance after the unusually small rise in March. That chimes with other evidence that a consumer revival is in the pipeline. 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets stumble in May Emerging Asia has not been spared in the recent EM sell-off, but its financial markets have held up better than those in other EM regions. 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) Over the past three months, lending to commercial property has stalled. But the weakness has not reflected a decline in lending to new development, suggesting there is still some appetite to take on... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) After reaching an eight-month high in May, core inflation looks set to rise further. Moreover, recent increases in oil prices will push headline inflation above 2% next month. While the recent drama... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update E. African inflation: Still on track for rate cuts in 2018 Inflation in Kenya and Uganda will pick up over the coming months. The shift will be mostly due to base effects, and with inflation within target, policymakers in both countries will cut rates by 50bp... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices Mortgage approvals for house purchase weakened again in April, while house prices edged down in May. But with real incomes growing once more and Q1’s weak GDP growth unlikely to be repeated, activity... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Rally in US steel prices to prove self-defeating President Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on US steel imports has sent the price of US hot-rolled coiled steel skyrocketing. But how sustainable is the rally in prices? In this Metals Watch we... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) May’s GfK/NOP survey showed that consumers are still in pretty good spirits, providing some reassurance that the economy got back on track again in Q2 after the weak start to the year. 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Danish GDP (Q1) The Swiss economy’s decent start to 2018 was partly down to a boost from international sports events but there are also signs of strengthening domestic demand. Nonetheless, with inflation still very... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1) While the headline figures in the first-quarter private capital expenditure survey were only a little weaker than most had anticipated, the news on non-mining investment was particularly disappointing... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil truckers’ strike: no cause for alarm bells just yet The truck drivers’ strike that has paralysed large swathes of Brazil’s economy over the past nine days has generated some apocalyptic headlines and led many forecasters to slash their 2018 GDP growth... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will turmoil in Italy spark contagion? The fallout from the latest political turmoil in Italy has so far been contained, with limited impact on other euro-zone countries’ financial markets. There are good reasons to expect this to remain... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New projections for DM bonds and currencies We have lowered our end-year forecasts for the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US, Germany and UK, all of which have fallen sharply during the past fortnight as Italy’s political crisis has... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
