Canada Economic Outlook Housing slump and higher rates weighing on growth We expect economic growth to slow to 1.7% this year and only 1.3% in 2019, as the housing downturn continues to weigh on consumption and residential investment. That weakness will eventually force the... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will core euro-zone government bond yields continue to rise? 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s outperformance won’t last While a jump in US Treasury yields has weighed on the price of gold over the past month, the price of silver has rallied. However, we doubt that silver will outperform gold for long. 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to announce taper despite Italy fears Despite worries about Italy’s new Government, we suspect that the ECB will announce after its meeting on 14th June that it will end its asset purchases this year. It might also strengthen its guidance... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Price pressures continue to ease The decline in housing market activity slowed in April. That said, the data are some way short of pointing to a meaningful recovery in either house price growth or transactions. On balance, we expect... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil Politics have captured the limelight over the past month. Bond yields in Italy have risen sharply over the past few weeks as concerns about debt sustainability and the new government’s commitment to... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation continued to fall in May, and while the markets have responded to the recent drop in the peso against the dollar by pricing in a 25bp hike at this month’s policy meeting, we’re... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Apartment construction rebounds The gradual decline in the number of multifamily units started for the rental sector went into reverse in the first quarter of 2018, with developers starting the most units since mid-2015. Rental... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank hikes, elections key to rate outlook The Turkish central bank’s decision to hike its one-week repo rate by 125bp, to 17.75%, is a tentative sign that it is shifting its focus away from simply shoring up the lira and towards tackling high... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production South Africa’s manufacturing sector strengthened in April, but a key portion of the industry continued to contract. In q/q terms, growth was actually weaker than in Q1. 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices and the boost to EM oil exporters There are already signs that the large EM oil exporters are responding to higher oil prices by scaling back austerity, which will help to drive stronger growth this year. But it’s notable that higher... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, Breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth was caused by net trade. While the latest evidence suggests that growth is unlikely to pick up much in Q2, it should still... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the IT sector continue to propel the S&P 500? The information technology (IT) sector of the S&P 500 has been on another tear since late April. Although its valuation is still not stretched and its weighting in the index will probably rise even... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Springtime in Addis Ababa? Reforms announced by Ethiopia’s government could upend the country’s political and economic model. This may eventually boost growth, but a delicate period of liberalisation will increase the risk of... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (May.) According to the Halifax index, house prices saw a fairly strong rise in May. Even so, the latest rise only partially reversed the large drop seen last month. As a result, house price inflation edged... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Qatar: A year on from the blockade One year after the diplomatic crisis surrounding Qatar first erupted, the economy appears to have weathered the storm. An escalation of the crisis remains the key threat to the economic outlook, but... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
