Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC needs to grab the bull by the horns Romania’s economy is overheating and, unless monetary policy is tightened markedly in the months ahead, a nastier adjustment and more abrupt slowdown in GDP growth lies in wait.Romania’s economy is... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the narrow monetary aggregates slowed further in April, but there is still little to suggest that this is having much of an impact on the wider economy. Our measure of M3 growth has held up... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The second consecutive monthly decline in Mexican industrial production in April was disappointing, but the data are volatile and must be viewed in the context of an economy that is performing well on... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising incomes good news for rental growth After eight years of stagnation, earnings growth finally looks set to accelerate. Household incomes have also received a boost from the tax cuts, which has helped raise rental growth expectations... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (May) Investment activity in May failed to show any signs of a revival. Although overseas investment declined, this was comfortably offset by a renewed interest from institutional and occupier investors. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume later this year A further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month has strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts. But policymakers seem hesitant to loosen policy against the backdrop of upcoming subsidy... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.) The early hard data for Q2 will have done little to reassure the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that the slowdown in Q1 will prove temporary. But the surveys suggest that some rebound is in store. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Financial stability concerns unlikely to lead to tightening Concerns about financial stability seem to have become more widespread on the Policy Board. But inflation remains far below the 2% target and the prospect of a renewed slowdown in domestic demand... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (May) May’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until early 2019 before raising... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2018) & Czech CPI (May) The Turkish economy grew by a faster-than-expected 7.4% y/y in Q1 but, crucially, this predates the recent financial market turmoil. An abrupt slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands The EU has shunned the Government’s backstop proposal for the whole of the UK to remain in the EU’s customs territory at the end of the transition period. It seems to us that this forces the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on Trump The EU, Canada and Mexico all announced retaliatory tarrifs on certain imports from the US this week. Although we doubt that this is the start of a full-blown trade war, the risk of one is greater now... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook At the tipping point The economic backdrop continues to be supportive of occupier markets, in spite of the euro-zone’s weaker-than-expected start to the year. But with the growth expected to slow, investment volumes... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandinavia and Switzerland look late-cycle The cycle in Scandinavia and Switzerland is showing signs of turning, with investment activity down compared to 2017 and 2016. The prospects are brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields are likely to... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly G7 summit to highlight divisions on trade America’s isolation on trade policy, which will be on full show at this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada, raises the (admittedly still small) risks of a worst-case scenario in which the US tears up NAFTA... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
