Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further rate cuts in Iceland unlikely The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 4.00% came as a surprise. While it was prompted by a deterioration in the economic outlook, inflation expectations remain high... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Recent drags on car sales are set to unwind Car sales in the world’s largest markets have slumped since mid-2018. In this Metals Watch we explain our forecast for sales to begin recovering later this year. 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions may exacerbate retail sales slump Retail sales growth slowed sharply in April, to its slowest pace since the SARS outbreak in 2003. While part of the weakness can be explained by a drop in fuel prices, the slowdown was not limited to... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer/Producer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) CPI Inflation rose back above the Bank of England’s 2% target in April for the first time since December. And while we suspect that inflation is likely to remain above 2% for the rest of the year, as... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa decreased to 4.4% y/y in April due to weaker core price pressures. We think that the headline rate will continue on a downward trend over the rest of the year. Combined with... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal policy to support modest pick-up in growth Fiscal policy exerted a big drag on the Russian economy last year and in Q1 of this year, but there are signs that the fiscal stance is now becoming less restrictive. This should support a modest... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Next round of tariffs to have a more significant impact The latest escalation in trade tensions could become a bigger drag on the US economy than previous rounds of tariffs. A 25% tariff on all imports from China would be equivalent to a tax worth 0.6% of... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Europe’s oil security problem to diminish over time The recent problem of oil contamination in Russia presents an upside risk to our oil price forecast in the short-term. If this develops into a longer-term theme, it could pose a serious risk to... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales dropped back for the second consecutive month in April. A lack of inventory has constrained sales even as lower mortgage interest rates have given a boost to housing demand. With... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Easing cycle will restart in Q3 Nigerian policymakers voted to hold their key rate at 13.50% today, but the governor’s suggests that they will continue to loosen policy later this year. The governor frequently stressed the need for... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Where should interest rates be? A policy rule suggests that for the time being the financial markets may be justified in taking a relatively sanguine approach towards the risk of rising interest rates. But should a Brexit deal be... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Apr.) The weakness in April’s investment data reinforces the downward underlying trend in activity. Indeed, with uncertainty prolonged and pricing concerns apparent, particularly in the retail sector, we... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Rebound in productivity growth has further to run The unexpected 0.5% q/q rise in GDP and the 3% q/q plunge in total hours worked in the first quarter meant that productivity rose at its fastest pace in nearly four years. That makes sense because... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further easing of deflation in Saudi Arabia in April suggests that stronger activity in the non-oil sector at the start of this year is (finally) feeding through to a pick-up in price pressures. 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No smoking gun in German industrial slowdown While the sharp downturns in the German motor vehicle and chemical sectors have attracted a lot of attention, the weakness of other sectors accounts for more of the slowdown in production since 2017... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
