Global Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Trump-Kim summit Today’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a year after it appeared North Korea could be heading for a devastating war with... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will surging interest rates sink the US economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will surging interest rates sink the economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Rising inflation remains a threat to the US Treasury market 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update NAFTA feud escalates The markets have dismissed the G7 trade spat between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as much ado about nothing, which is understandable given the former’s infamously bellicose... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The increase in headline inflation to a six-year high of 2.8% in May is partly due to the rally in energy prices, but it is also reflects another solid monthly gain in core CPI, which will keep the... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Trump-Kim summit Today’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a year after it appeared North Korea could be heading for a devastating war with... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation rose to a four-month high in May and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last week’s hike in the repo rate with further... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) We think that forecasts of even higher non-OPEC supply this year will push the cartel into increasing output at its meeting next week. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Where will office rents rise fastest? A solid employment growth outlook, combined with relatively small development pipelines will enable a weighted average of Western European office rents to climb by around 8% p.a. in the 2018-20 period... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) Today’s detailed mortgage lending data suggest that the slowdown in net lending has been driven primarily by buy-to-let. This suggests that the sell-off among landlords has, if anything, intensified... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Apr.) The annual pace of job creation increased further in April. However, a slowing in average earnings growth and an increase in the number of part-time workers suggest the headline numbers may not be as... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) Another strong set of employment figures in April suggests that firms remain positive about the outlook for demand despite the economy going through a soft patch at the start of the year. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The value of new loans issued by Chinese banks edged down last month. But this often happens in May. More importantly, broad credit growth slowed further and is now the weakest in over a decade. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally won’t last The ongoing wage negotiations at several copper mines are likely to keep prices well supported in the short term. However, we think that growing supply and only subdued demand will weigh on copper... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
