Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Swiss and Nordic central banks follow the ECB? The Swiss and Nordic central banks are unlikely to follow the ECB in announcing significant changes to monetary policy over the next month. 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Turkey forecasts We have warned about the risk of a sharp slowdown in Turkey for some time and this now seems to be materialising. The economy is likely to experience a quarter or two of negative growth this year. A... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Inflation to be contained this year Inflation in Uganda will accelerate over the coming months, but remain below the highs recorded last year. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold this year, but restart their easing cycle in... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger growth not generating major imbalances After the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by another 25bp, Fed Chair Jerome Powell claimed in the post-meeting press conference that “the economy is doing very well” – we couldn’t agree more... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fears of protectionism weigh on prices The Fed’s decision to hike its target rate by 25bp and the announcement that the US was going to press ahead with a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese goods prompted a rally in the dollar, which in turn... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation outlook is benign Inflation in most major advanced economies is likely to trend towards 2% over the next couple of years. Despite record-low unemployment rates, wage inflation is likely to remain fairly weak in most... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt will remain a risk for years to come The news earlier this week that household debt had edged down to 168.0% of disposable incomes in the first quarter, from 169.7% in the final quarter of last year, was greeted by some as confirmation... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The strong survey evidence suggests that the drop in manufacturing output in May was a blip, but the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, if reciprocated, could weigh on the factory sector later this... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Headwinds mount A trade spat with the US is one of a number of headwinds facing China’s economy over the coming year. They point to a slowdown not a slump. But the outlook further ahead is no better. Policymakers’... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response External trade (May) India’s goods trade deficit widened in May, but should drop back over the coming months, helped by a combination of easing oil prices and restrictions on gold imports. India isn’t particularly exposed... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The unexpected 1.9% m/m slump in manufacturing sales volumes in April is a blow to the Bank of Canada, since it suggests that economic growth has not picked up much after the disappointingly weak... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried by softer pay growth? We had expected the recent upward trend in nominal pay growth to come to a brief halt in April due to unfavourable base effects. But the drop in the annual growth rate of average earnings (excluding... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why are we so bullish on Nordic office rents? Over the last decade, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm have experienced a reduction in floorspace per employee. As a result, firms have been able to pay higher prime rents than previously. We think that... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What could upend the ECB’s plans? The ECB finally announced this week that the end of its asset purchase programme is in sight and that rates will stay on hold at least until the second half of 2019. But the ECB is not on auto-pilot... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
