Latin America Economics Update FX sell-off to trigger hike in Mexico, but Brazil to hold The latest sell-off in the Mexican peso tips the balance towards policy being tightened at Thursday’s central bank meeting. We’re changing our forecast and now expect a 50bp hike in the policy... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Strong start to the year likely to be sustained In contrast to the euro-zone and UK, the Swiss and Nordic economies grew fairly quickly in Q1. Finland was the top performer, with GDP rising by 1.2% on the quarter. Iceland was hot on its heels... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM market fallout from trade fears escalating The details of the Trump administration’s threat to step up its trade conflict with China are not yet clear, but one notable feature is that the market fallout for the emerging world has been greater... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing era of ultra-loose policy to an end The post-meeting communications following today’s Hungarian MPC meeting offered some strong hints that the recent era of ultra-loose monetary policy is in its final days. We think that unconventional... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Both single and multifamily housing starts rose in May, meaning total housing starts were up 20.3% compared to a year earlier, close to a two-year high. However, the building permit data show that... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Has gold lost its safe-haven status? Tensions between the US and China have escalated over the past few days, with both countries announcing hefty tariffs. Yet, the price of gold fell on the news. In this Metals Watch we first look at... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: will an MSCI upgrade drive the Tadawul higher? MSCI’s upcoming decision on whether to include Saudi Arabia in its benchmark emerging market equity indices has been billed as a game changer for the Kingdom’s stock market, but past experience... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a US-China trade war mean for Asia? Trade tensions between the US and China have been ratcheted up another notch after US President Donald Trump yesterday threatened to impose a 10% tariff on a further US$200bn of Chinese imports... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Where to for office rents in the Rest of the South East? The latest labour market data paint a worrying picture for occupier demand and rental value growth in the South East office market. Yet other indicators are more positive, and if we are right to... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the surge in second-hand sales? Despite rapid growth, sales of second-hand goods remain too low to constitute a major threat to retailers. Their rising popularity reflects the increased convenience of electronic platforms rather... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will tariffs dampen oil demand? The retaliatory tariffs which China has threatened to impose on oil imports from the US would not in themselves change the balance of supply and demand in global oil markets. But if China chooses to... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How does the renminbi fit into the China-US trade tensions? 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB still hike if the Fed started cutting? We expect the ECB to start raising interest rates in September 2019, not long before we judge that the US Fed will start to cut. Such divergence between the two central banks would be almost... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Duque victory, but tax cuts could be delayed The victory for business-friendly candidate Iván Duque in Colombia’s presidential election looks largely priced in and should have a limited impact on local markets in the coming days. Investors will... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) Today’s GDP figures show that Sri Lanka’s economy made a weak start to 2018. While growth should pick up over the coming quarters, the recovery is likely to be weak by past standards. 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
