A trade spat with the US is one of a number of headwinds facing China’s economy over the coming year. They point to a slowdown not a slump. But the outlook further ahead is no better. Policymakers’ reluctance to allow market forces to determine economic outcomes is eroding the advantages that have kept China an economic outperformer for so long. China’s average growth over the coming decade is likely to be much weaker as a result.
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