Canada Chart Pack Yield curve not a perfect recession indicator in Canada The Canadian yield curve has flattened to its lowest level since the run-up to the late 2008 recession but, unlike in the US, it is not an infallible indicator for predicting economic downturns... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Apr.) The FHFA reported that house prices rose by a marginal 0.1% m/m in April, the second month in a row of small monthly gains. Even as inventory levels have stayed close to record lows, house price... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC on track for an August hike While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stopped short of explicitly committing to a rate hike in August, the hawkish tone of June’s Minutes & Statement suggest that it is pretty likely. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt subsidy cuts, Saudi upgrade, OPEC meeting Hikes to fuel prices announced by the Egyptian government over the past week mean that the central bank will refrain lowering interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, growing tensions within... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s central bank to keep policy on hold With economic growth fairly strong and inflationary pressures subdued, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided today to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.375%. The dovish tone of the Bank’s accompanying... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus A weaker outlook for shopping centres The evidence suggests that the headwinds currently buffeting the retail sector are taking a larger toll on shopping centres than on other types of retail property. As a result, and in contrast to the... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures not only confirmed that the new fiscal year is off to a good start, but also that borrowing in 2017/18 was lower than previously thought. As such, the Chancellor should... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Krone to weaken despite Norges Bank tightening Today’s policy announcement by the Norges Bank shows that it is on the brink of raising interest rates. But once it has started, it will tighten policy only very slowly. And because we forecast oil... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sticks to its dovish script amid political concerns Despite the ECB calling time on its asset purchase programme last week, the Swiss National Bank today left its monetary policy stance unchanged and cited worries about franc strength, political... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) The batch of Polish activity data for May suggests that the economy is set to slow from 5.2% y/y in Q1 to around 4% y/y in Q2. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) After widening in Q1, South Africa’s current account deficit will likely narrow later this year. The deficit strengthens calls for a rate hike, though we maintain that the SARB will leave rates on... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
