Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth already starting to slow The recent rise in global trade tensions comes at a time when EM export growth has already started to slow. Higher oil prices will provide a boost to export growth in value terms in the next few... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the joint sell-off in EM currencies and bonds last? The recent widespread weakness of emerging market (EM) currencies has been accompanied by a rise in local currency bond yields in almost all EMs. But even if currencies generally continue to slide, as... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EAC Budgets: Kenyan fiscal policy raises economic risks Kenyan policymakers’ plan to narrow their budget deficit relies on very optimistic revenue forecasts. If these are missed, concerns about Kenya’s large and growing debt burden will increase. 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) & Goods Trade (Apr.) The pick-up in euro-zone wage growth in Q1 is another sign that the economy is moving in the right direction. Over the coming years, we think wage growth will continue to rise, but only gradually. So... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand: Demographics and politics to drag on prospects Thailand’s working age population is forecast to start shrinking from next year, presenting a headwind to the country’s economic prospects. With productivity growth set to remain weak, economic growth... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still holding fast to ultra-loose policy The Bank of Japan has recently been expressing greater concern about the impact of ultra-loose monetary policy on financial stability. But Governor Kuroda today insisted that the key focus of policy... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack UAE the latest to loosen fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs that governments across the Gulf are responding to higher oil prices by ramping up spending. Both Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest emirates that make up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending recovery now underway The rebound in retail sales volumes so far in Q2 has provided us with some encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weak start to the year. Meanwhile, wage growth... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weaker growth to trigger shift in policy soon There have been clearer signs recently that China’s economy is slowing. We expect headwinds to economic growth to continue to build over the coming months and that this will prompt the People’s Bank... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil and coal prices to fall, but gas to remain strong We think that differing outlooks for demand will cause the prices of energy commodities to diverge over the rest of this year, despite their recent close correlation. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Banks report rise in demand from riskier borrowers We doubt the rise in mortgage demand from higher risk borrowers reported in the latest Fannie Mae survey will lead to a surge in mortgage lending. Cautious lenders and regulations mean that this... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower production to support grains prices Adverse weather this year has prompted us to revise down our estimates of the forthcoming global grain and soybean harvests. Stocks remain at comfortable levels, but we have also nudged up our price... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes dovish tone as asset purchases set to end The ECB announced today that its asset purchase programme will end in December. But its other communications reinforced our long-held view that interest rates will not rise until at least September... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
