Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia’s demographic squeeze (finally) being tackled? The announcement that Russia’s Cabinet plans to raise the retirement age is a step in the right direction. While there are question marks about whether it will be implemented in full, it could stop... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Mixed data to keep the hawks in the minority An interest rate rise on 21st June looks unlikely. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will probably want to wait at least a few more months for news on the economy’s health before hiking rates. But... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Households are back to their free spending ways, with the strength of May’s retail sales figures implying that second-quarter real consumption growth (and GDP growth for that matter) will now be more... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency sell-off tests resolve of some central banks History suggests that the sell-off in EM currencies over the past couple of months could be large enough to push central banks in Mexico, Brazil and South Africa to raise interest rates – although the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Fed tightening to put a cap on gold prices in 2018 Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold edged higher following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike US interest rates for the second time this year. But we don’t think this is the start of a... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak start to Q2 Today’s mining figures confirmed that, following a disappointing Q1, South Africa’s economy weakened even more at the start of the Q2. We still think that the economy will strengthen this year. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why have corporate profits soared? Corporate profits have more than doubled since Prime Minister Abe returned to power. We think that this reflects a reduction in cross-shareholdings since the late 1990s and improvements in corporate... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) May’s retail sales figures have added to the evidence that consumer spending growth has regained some pace following the softness at the start of the year. 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile to shift into tightening mode in next 6-9 months The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% was slightly less dovish than its last, supporting our view that the central bank will shift... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) May’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation primarily reflected stronger energy and food inflation. But with domestic inflationary pressure building, we continue to think the Riksbank will raise rates in... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Despite the market turmoil of recent weeks, problems in Turkey and Argentina look to be isolated incidents, with our capital flows Tracker giving no indication of large or widespread capital outflows... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) New sales instructions grew in May, for the first time in over two years. That could be a sign that the sell-off among landlords is intensifying. In any case, with new buyer enquiries still declining... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in May and looks set to remain elevated suggests that the RBI will follow up this month... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Today’s activity data were a mixed bag as industrial production and real estate activity picked up but retail sales and investment spending cooled last month. We think that activity will slow over the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) While the unemployment rate edged down in May, the underutilisation rate held steady suggesting that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market. And in his speech yesterday, Governor Philip... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed signals a step-up in the pace of tightening The Fed delivered another 25bp hike in its fed funds target range to between 1.75% and 2.00% today and the updated interest rate projections show that officials now anticipate an additional two 25bp... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
