Africa Economics Update West Africa: Easing cycles will continue Inflation figures released today by Nigeria, Ghana, and Angola were all weak by recent standards. We think that policymakers will continue their easing cycles in late 2018 and early 2019. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Assessing Lat Am’s vulnerability to US protectionism Mexico, as well as several smaller countries in Central America (including Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica), are most vulnerable to a general escalation in US protectionism. But individual sectors... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to lower net imports and higher demand from refineries. However, US oil production posted another jump. Output is growing at a much faster rate than demand... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors right to dismiss surging Japanese profits? Surging corporate profits in Japan since the beginning of last year have not generated much excitement among investors. This is probably because most of it has come from sectors that rely heavily on... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Assessing the impact of an “all-out” trade war Our best guess is that even if all the protectionist threats made to date were carried out, they would subtract a lot less than half a percent from global GDP. A free-for-all, in which all governments... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a widening in India’s current account deficit in Q1 over a four-quarter sum, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains at a sustainable level. In addition, FDI inflows... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone’s recovery too good to last? Fears that the euro-zone’s recovery is going into reverse seem overdone. Weakness in Q1 related partly to temporary factors, the effects of Italian political turmoil have been contained and prospects... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the rise of flexible offices distorting vacancy rates? The surge in flexible office take-up over the past five years has raised the question as to whether office vacancy rates could be distorted as flexible offices tend to not be fully occupied. However... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold but rate rises coming The Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today and reiterated that a tight monetary policy stance is still needed, given the strong economy and pressures in the labour market. We think that... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the slowdown in money growth? The recent slowdown in money growth could be taken as evidence that economic growth will weaken further. However, it is not unheard of for economic growth to hold up well even when money growth is... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) The rise in oil prices has brought the recent downward trend in CPI inflation to a halt. But we doubt it will be too long before inflation starts to drift down again. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Apr.) The official index showed house price growth cooling in April. And while the rate of house price growth in London returned to positive territory, there are few reasons to think this will be sustained. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy has not rebounded strongly since Q1’s slowdown. Nevertheless, with more timely survey measures of activity still... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Is a financial crisis looming? The most likely consequence of the rapid build-up of household debt over the past decade is a number of years of softer GDP growth and lower interest rates than widely expected. But the risk of a more... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June is encouraging, we remain cautious about the outlook for consumption growth. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
