China Economics Weekly RRR cut imminent, investment restrictions coming Escalating trade tensions with the US have led the news abroad, but in China much of the focus over the past week has been on the outlook for the domestic economy and policy. An RRR cut appears... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Shortage of labour and materials will thwart builders Developments in the housing market continue to be dominated by record low levels of inventory. A scarcity of labour and high lumber prices are preventing builders from responding to that shortage... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly An August hike, manufacturing rebound, Brexit deadlock The hawkish tone of this week’s MPC Minutes supports our long-held view that the Committee will raise rates in August. Elsewhere, this week’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided us with some... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC: Will they, won’t they? Most commodity prices fell sharply this week on concerns that the rise in trade tensions between the US and China could spiral into a full-blown trade war. There were particularly sharp drops in the... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymakers signal further tightening Over the past week the central banks of Indonesia, the Philippines and India have all signalled that further monetary policy tightening is only a matter of time. Elsewhere, however, with inflation... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions start to tighten There are signs that the sell-off in EM markets is starting to cause financial conditions to tighten in some economies beyond Turkey and Argentina. These include Mexico, Brazil and South Africa. If... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI provides some reassurance that the softness recorded so far in 2018 is not the start of a sustained downturn, and that the pace of GDP growth will remain fairly... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) The manufacturing PMI was little changed in June and still points to robust gains in industrial output. And the recent surge in crude oil prices is boosting price pressures. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Prices to fall further The prices of industrial metals have been caught up in the general market sell-off following the ramping up of trade tensions between the US and China. We expect prices to continue to trend lower over... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drop in airfares inflation a measurement problem The recent drop in airfare inflation has been a small drag on core inflation and, unlike last year’s fall in wireless telephone service prices, appears to be a genuine measurement problem. Underlying... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook When will boom turn to bust? Fuelled by the fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth to be 2.9% this year but, as the stimulus fades and higher interest rates become a bigger drag on the economy, growth should slow to 2.0% in 2019... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Headwinds building The latest hard activity figures suggest that EM growth held up well going into Q2, but that headwinds to the macroeconomic outlook are starting to build. The most recent trade figure show that EM... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
