UK Housing Market Update London LTI correction still to come Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Having risen in the last few months, Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.4% y/y in the first half of May, supporting our view that the recent increase in the headline rate was temporary. We expect... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Account shows ECB divided but dovish The account of the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting confirms that policymakers were concerned about downside risks to economic activity and, particularly, inflation. This reinforces our view that... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain cautious despite stronger run of data The economy is performing better than the Bank of Canada previously expected, but the outlook remains challenging. We expect the Bank to keep policy unchanged next week and anticipate another fairly... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s subsidy cuts, OPEC+ to renew output deal Electricity price hikes announced in Egypt this week are actually less aggressive than last year’s, but this will shave only a small amount off headline inflation. And with fuel price increases still... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May.) The flash PMIs for the euro-zone continued to disappoint in May and suggest that the economic growth dropped back again in the second quarter. And with the Ifo Business Climate Index having fallen to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s strong batch of activity data suggests that, following an already-impressive Q1, Poland’s economy accelerated at the start of Q2. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 5.3% y/y in April. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose again this week partly due to a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which caused prices to drop sharply today. Despite this, we still think that crude... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The US/China trade war doesn’t pose a big risk to Treasuries 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales growth was flattered in March by higher gasoline prices and the unwinding of temporary factors that had weighed on sales in February. We expect overall consumer spending growth to lag... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s happening to home improvement spending? With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit events raise risk economy is in limbo for longer The reaction to Theresa May’s “new” Brexit deal suggests that the chances of a deal have fallen and the chances of another delay, a no deal, no Brexit and/or a general election have all risen. It’s... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling inflation expectations another worry for ECB The recent fall in financial market measures of inflation expectations may be a bit misleading, and is not matched by a comparable fall in households’ inflation expectations. But it is nonetheless... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
