Latin America Economics Update More to Chile’s short-term debt than meets the eye Chile’s short-term external debt burden is one of the largest in the emerging world, but there is more to it than meets the eye. A large chunk reflects intercompany lending, and most of this is... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC hints that it will press ahead in August The Bank of England Chief Economist, Andy Haldane’s, surprise vote for an interest rate increase in June, alongside a hawkish set of minutes, suggests that the MPC will press ahead with a rate hike in... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain comes back under the spotlight The sell-off in Bahrain’s financial markets this week reflects fears that it is struggling to secure external financing to plug its large twin budget and current account deficits. We still think that... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports rose strongly in May on the back of robust wholesale consumption... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (May.) House purchase mortgage approvals rose gently in May – for a second consecutive month. But lending is still down compared to a year ago. And while the recent trend of falling mortgage market activity... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the ECB affect CEE? The ECB’s ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases later this year and probable rate hikes in 2019 are unlikely to have much economic or financial market impact in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But, at... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures continue to build The Reserve Bank of India hiked its repo rate for the first time in four years earlier this month. Subsequent data showing that core consumer price inflation has risen to its highest rate since July... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch A wilting desire to raise interest rates An apparent wilting desire to raise interest rates means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd July and probably won’t raise rates... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade makes a partial recovery as tensions build The rebound in world trade volumes in April offers some reassurance that global trade has not collapsed. And while recent survey and “hard” data are giving some mixed signals about the near-term... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) A decent 6.7% m/m rise in new home sales in May means the share of new single-family sales in total sales has reached a 10-year high. But that rise in sales has choked off what had been a steady rise... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a problem for Italy are rising yields? We think that Italy’s bond yields will rise more quickly than most expect. But as long as the Government waters down its fiscal plans, and is committed to the euro, its interest costs should remain... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: the economic impact of the revised OPEC deal Revisions to OPEC’s oil output agreement will lead to a rise in supplies from the Gulf over the coming months, providing a direct boost to economic growth. Higher production will, however, depress oil... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 6.6% y/y increase in global steel production in May, driven by higher output in China, India, Japan and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
