OPEC Watch OPEC agrees to boost output We expect OPEC and Russia to increase production by about 1m barrels per day over the rest of the year, which should ensure ample supply and help to pull prices down. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP eases growth concerns Worries about China’s economic outlook have increased recently. But our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth strengthened in May to the strongest rate so far this year. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) While the Ifo Business Climate Indicator edged down in June, it remains at a high level and therefore adds to evidence from the PMI that growth picked up somewhat in Q2 after a slow start to the year. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to watch for after the Erdogan-AKP victory Victories for President Erdogan and his AKP-led alliance in Turkey’s elections have been welcomed by financial markets, but history suggests that this rally will be short-lived, particularly if Mr... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) The lacklustre rise in our NZAP in April suggests that after slowing in the first quarter the economy failed to regain much momentum in the second. We expect growth will continue to slow from here. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut adds to signs of monetary policy shift Yesterday’s required reserve ratio (RRR) cut is officially intended to support banks’ debt-to-equity swaps rather than mark a shift away from deleveraging and toward monetary easing. But in practice... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU Council to issue warning over slow progress The Government this week managed to avoid giving Parliament the right to direct negotiations were the UK to end up heading towards a “no-deal” Brexit. But next week’s EU Council summit will highlight... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB dovish, Norges Bank hawkish, Sweden ETI strong This week’s quarterly policy statement from the Swiss National Bank strengthened our view that tighter monetary policy in Switzerland is a long way off. By contrast, higher interest rates are imminent... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Progress on Greece, ECB dovish, Ifo to offer comfort The big news this week was that Greece is finally emerging from a period of eight years under bailout programmes. But our judgement remains that the risks of a future Greek default and/or euro-zone... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Advanced economies entering Q3 with momentum Business surveys for June, which were published by Markit today, reinforce our view that GDP growth in advanced economies rebounded in the second quarter. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Madrid offices still a good bet? Although prime office yields in Madrid have been flat for the past year, pricing doesn’t appear to be obviously stretched. And while capital value growth is largely done, good rental growth prospects... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly weak inflation and retail sales data released today support our view that the Bank of Canada will stand pat at next month’s policy meeting, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
