Global Markets Update Four signs equity investors are worrying about trade Trade tensions have not caused any dramatic moves yet, but there are at least four clear signs in the equity markets of investors becoming more nervous about the possibility of a global trade war. 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC confident that UK banks can cope with Brexit The Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC’s) biannual assessment of financial stability found that the banking sector is in good health, and should be able to withstand a disorderly Brexit. As a result... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway labour data bolster case for September rate hike Norway’s labour market recovery should continue to push up wage growth over the coming years. But with wage expectations still quite low, wage growth will probably rise only slowly, so the Norges Bank... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) House price inflation slowed to 2% in June – the slowest result since 2013. And with prices down by 1.9% y/y in Q2, the fall in London prices accelerated. That said, with tentative signs that activity... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a fourth consecutive month to 2.3% y/y in May on the back of falling housing and utilities prices. Recent signs that growth in the non-oil economy is starting to... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will productivity growth rebound? Forecasting shifts in productivity is notoriously hard but past experience suggests that the recent slowdown in productivity growth in Japan should reverse over the coming decade. Nonetheless, with... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC allows renminbi to weaken The latest escalation of US threats against China has triggered a slide in the renminbi. The People’s Bank appears to have done little to resist the move so far, but it will remain wary that sustained... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a risk is the rise in EM sovereign FX debt? A surge in sovereign foreign currency debt issuance over the past 18 months has made Argentina’s recent economic turmoil worse and has contributed to the tensions that have arisen in Bahrain’s... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The slowdown in annual house price growth to 6.4% on the Case-Shiller measure in April is in line with earlier data from the FHFA. In addition to record low levels of inventory, active housing demand... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental values mark time Data and surveys suggest there has been some recovery in economic activity in the UK during the second quarter. Developments in the consumer sector have been positive, with annual growth in retail... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second quarter rebound led by consumption After a disappointing first quarter, our calculations suggest that annualised GDP growth will rebound to more than 4% in the second quarter, driven by a big turnaround in consumption growth. Even... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
