Hikes to fuel prices announced by the Egyptian government over the past week mean that the central bank will refrain lowering interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, growing tensions within OPEC ahead of the cartel’s meeting on Friday create a real risk that the current output agreement falls apart, which could prompt Saudi Arabia to ramp up oil production. The direct effect of higher oil output could add 2.0-2.5%-pt to GDP growth, but the resulting sharp fall in oil prices would mitigate the boost to the wider economy.
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