Emerging Europe Chart Pack Hawkish shift across the region Central banks across Emerging Europe have become increasingly hawkish in the past few weeks, supporting our view that policy in the region will (in most places) be tighter than most expect over the... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set to slow We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment slowed to 180,000 in June. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 3.8%, but we suspect that annual wage growth rose further, a trend that... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update CEMAC: Recovery will not be sustained After a painful adjustment, growth in the Central African franc zone will pick up in 2018 and 2019. The region’s longer-term outlook, however, is poor. Indeed, tensions between Cameroon and its more... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain gets Gulf support, new gas discovery in Egypt? The announcement on Wednesday that Bahrain is in talks with the other Gulf countries over financial support reinforces our view that, despite recent worries in the markets, its dollar peg won’t be... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) After falling only marginally in June, the EC’s measure of economic sentiment provides further evidence that the softness in activity recorded in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp downturn. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q1) Housing starts fell in Q1, as the wider housing market slowdown caught up with the newbuild sector. Indeed, with newbuild transactions now falling, we think the housebuilding recovery has reached a... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will a stronger Swiss economy boost rental prospects? The Swiss economy is forecast to put in a fairly decent performance over the next couple of years. But with strong office development pipelines, and already high retail rents, we think that the... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) Despite the fall in retail sales in May, consumer spending should still return to growth in the current quarter. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier dollar bonds under pressure Emerging market dollar bonds have struggled over the past month, but those in frontier markets have typically fared much worse. Of course, risky assets in general have sold off amid fears of a global... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trade tensions cast a wide net Concerns about the escalation in trade tensions and the potential negative implications for global GDP growth have sparked a sell-off in commodity markets this month. However, even if fears of a trade... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week due to a jump in exports and higher demand from refineries. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread this week may put a dampener on exports, but outages in... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The decline in both headline and core durable goods orders in May indicates that growth in business equipment investment remained close to 5% annualised in the second quarter, much weaker than the... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB raise its interest rates in tandem? While most forecasters now agree with our long-held view that the first ECB rate hike will come in September 2019, there is no clear consensus over which rate will rise first or why. In this Update... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: More tightening in 2018 & 2019 The statement and press conference following today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the Council resumed its tightening cycle – were on the hawkish side, supporting our view that further rate hikes are... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
