UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has rebounded from a disappointing Q1. And the forward-looking balances provided some encouragement that the outlook for the sector has improved. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what to watch after Amlo’s resounding victory The conciliatory tone of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo’s) speeches following his convincing presidential election victory has been relatively well-received by the markets. But it’s worth... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi emerges from recession, recovery to gather pace Saudi Arabia’s economy pulled out of recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to gain momentum over the coming quarters, supported by fiscal stimulus and a jump in oil output. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs signal weaker demand China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs point to a somewhat softer economy in June. We expect further weakness ahead, which will continue to weigh on the prices of most commodities. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for June provides further evidence that the slump in the economy seen in Q1 was followed by further weakness in Q2. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI survey for June suggested that the economy is growing strongly, but inflationary pressures are weak. By contrast, Sweden’s survey implies that growth will slow, but... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped to a six-month high in June, building on the recent run of positive economic data. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain bright over the near term. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The Reserve Bank of Australia probably isn’t too concerned by the further small fall in house prices in June. But the clear risk is that rising mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions prompt... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB plays down rate hikes, Mexico goes to the polls A victory for left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential vote this weekend looks priced in. The market reaction is likely to take its cue from the performance of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike on its way, but a dovish shift further ahead? There was nothing in the comments made by MPC members this week, nor in the latest data releases, to make us alter our view that the MPC will raise interest rates on August 2 nd. Admittedly, Jonathan... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil bucks the trend Most commodity prices fell this week on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and rising trade tensions between the US and China. The exception was oil, which jumped on the announcement of a new... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys still fairly upbeat, little progress on integration In our opinion, this week’s media coverage of the June EC and Ifo surveys was too downbeat. Both indicators are still consistent with annual GDP growth of over 2%. Other data told a familiar story of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Twin rally in euro-zone equities and currency unlikely to last 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU talks at risk, Riksbank to signal Q4 rate rise The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
