Japan Economics Weekly Teflon Abe is back, labour market tightening rapidly Japan has looked to be at full employment for some time but the latest releases have called that assumption into question and raised the possibility that wage growth – and the Bank of Japan’s hopes of... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rupee drops to record low, one year of the GST The drop in the Indian rupee to an all-time low this week has inevitably triggered comparisons with the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But we don’t think there is major cause for concern. The external... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) June’s GfK/NOP survey showed that consumer confidence dipped at the end of Q2. But with real wages set to rise more strongly towards the end of the year, sentiment and consumer spending growth should... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (June) & Danish GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) The small rise in the KOF Economic Barometer in June suggests that the Swiss economy will continue to grow at a decent pace. But with still little sign that this is generating inflationary pressures... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Russia’s data revisions? The upwards revisions to Russia’s industrial production figures have raised concerns about the quality of the data but, based on the figures released so far, the new series does seem to reflect... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in the second quarter of the year. While growth should remain robust in the near term, helped by continued solid export demand and loose... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Inflation rise tests the RBI's credibility A sharp rise in inflation over recent months, and a jump in household inflation expectations, has raised concerns that the RBI has fallen behind the curve and is squandering its hard-won inflation... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.) While industrial output fell slightly in May, the economy should have returned to growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the labour market continues to tighten and there are signs that this is now... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the sun setting on the oil market? Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Spill-over from Chinese markets will probably remain contained 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Will platinum trade at a premium again? With anti-diesel sentiment unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, we expect the price of platinum to continue to trade at a discount to palladium until 2020 when a combination of demand and supply... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed-ECB divergence has another year to run Over the next twelve months we expect the gap in policy rates between the US and euro-zone to continue to widen. The Fed is likely to raise rates every three months while the ECB leaves rates... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian markets take a beating on trade war fears Rising US-China trade tensions, fears over the outlook for China’s domestic economy and the uncertain outlook over US monetary policy have all weighed heavily on the region’s financial markets over... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
