US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off trade uncertainty Concerns over trade policy weighed on the markets this week, with only a brief respite from President Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to cancel the planned announcement of new investment... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the construction sector in trouble? June’s employment figures, due for release next Friday, will confirm whether the recent signs of weakness in construction were just a temporary blip, possibly weather-related, or something more... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Despite the slowdown in monthly GDP growth in April, the chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next month has risen following the good performance by conventional industries at the start... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Politics comes to the fore Rising political risk has dominated the headlines in Latin America this month. A recent truck drivers’ strike in Brazil, a protest against the removal of diesel subsidies, has disrupted activity and... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Californian inventory rises, but for the wrong reasons The rise in the number of homes for sale in California, to its highest level in a year, is not the good news it first appears. The increase is due to a drop in home sales, rather than a rise in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of a fresh slowdown in EM GDP growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth strengthened in the middle of Q2, but early indicators suggest that growth started to slow again at the end of the quarter. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Housing market activity, and therefore mortgage lending, remains subdued. But growth in unsecured household borrowing maintained its pace in May. And still-solid consumer confidence suggests that it... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Market slide stemmed, property strained, tariffs loom A promise of support from the People’s Bank helped stem the slide in both the renminbi and Shanghai equities today. If declines resume next week, we would expect more forceful intervention to support... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What can we learn from US property? As rising US Treasury yields have squeezed US property’s yield gap over the risk-free rate, investment volumes have dropped back and core office yields are rising. While Europe is lagging the US... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points today suggests that the central bank’s priority over the coming months will be to support the currency... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q1) Despite the upward revision to Q1 GDP growth, the breakdown left the economy looking a little more fragile than before. But there are still reasons to be optimistic about the growth outlook. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan wins in Turkey, forint hits record low Victories for President Erdogan and the AKP in Turkish elections last weekend have supported a rally in local markets over the course of this week but this has overshadowed the latest survey data... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (May) A strong monthly increase in lending for standing property drove net lending to property in May. But a dip in net lending for development may be a sign that lenders’ risk appetite is still weak. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s inflation data are unlikely to change the ECB’s assessment of the outlook for monetary policy. We maintain our long-held view that the Bank will leave its interest rates unchanged until... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May) May’s rise in mortgage approvals was too small to suggest that a revival in the lending market is underway. Not only was the number of mortgages approved comfortably within the range which has... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election worries in Indonesia, delays in Thailand The strong showing of opposition parties in local elections held across Indonesia on Wednesday is bad news for President Joko Widodo. They could prompt a shift in policymaking towards more populist... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
