Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK Prime Minister Theresa May resigns The resignation of the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexitdeal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth picked up at the start of Q2 as strong industrialoutput offset continued weakness in the retail and construction sectors. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The weakness of the April durable goods data, which showed underlying orders unchanged following a downwardly-revised plunge in March, provides further evidence that economic growth is slowing sharply... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU elections, more weak surveys This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister May falls, CPI inflation rises The announcement by the Prime Minister that she will resign appears to have generated even more political uncertainty for the Bank of England to deal with. The Bank will be thankful, then, that... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The softer-than-expected mid-month inflation Brazilian figure for May, of 4.9% y/y, suggests that the headline rate has now peaked, and we think it will fall back below the central bank’s target in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Prop from construction prevents further slowdown Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, while a further acceleration in construction activity prevented growth from edging down in April, momentum in the rest of the economy softened last month. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Won weakness, election season over The 6% decline in the Korean won since the start of the year does not pose a major threat to the economy. However, policymakers are clearly irked by the decline in the currency, with officials from... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail yields at an inflection point A further slowdown in the rate of yield compression suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about pricing at this late stage of the cycle. We expect this to continue, especially given the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Subdued rental growth sets tone for a weaker year Occupier demand is strong in all three sectors, with solid economic growth supporting expansion, although we expect this to slow through the course of the year, dampening rental growth in all sectors... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Interest rate reforms unlikely to deliver hoped-for gains While the trade war has dominated the headlines, the People’s Bank has been getting on with the unglamorous work of financial reform. It is moving closer to phasing out benchmark lending rates. That... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign dollar bonds not all in the same boat We think that EM sovereign dollar bonds will generally fare badly in 2019. But their correlations with US equities and Treasuries suggest that they will hold up better in parts of Asia and Latin... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
