Africa Economics Update South African rand: Why always me? The rand’s status as a liquid, easily traded currency makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in EM sentiment. But these seldom last, and the SARB will not – as some expect – respond by hiking... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The decline in the national rate of house price inflation to a five-year low of 1.8% in July is likely to be followed by further weakness in the months ahead. For now, house prices seem more likely to... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, but the recent market turmoil suggests that the pace of outflows probably accelerated again in August. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jun.) Today’s labour market data showed some moderation in employment growth. However, with job creation mostly in full-time positions and real wage growth still positive, the details do not point to a... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), IP (Jun.) & German ZEW (Aug.) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 will make policymakers at the ECB more confident that they are right to be winding down their asset purchases. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Lending Trends (Q2) High levels of remortgaging in the second quarter suggest that borrowers are actively taking steps to limit the impact of rising Bank Rate on their mortgage payments over the coming few years. While... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) Today’s labour market figures showed that the recent surge in employment has petered out and that real wage growth remains subdued, casting doubt over the likely strength of any recovery in consumer... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected expansions in Germany and the Netherlands in Q2 provide some hope that the euro-zone economy may have grown more strongly in Q2 than initially estimated. This should... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The activity and spending data for July all came in below consensus expectations despite surprisingly strong external demand. This highlights the continued strong headwinds to domestic demand from... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loonie to depreciate even if NAFTA deal is reached A quick NAFTA deal is an upside risk to our forecast for the loonie to remain near its current rate against the US dollar this year. But our forecasts for various commodity prices to decline and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the crisis in Turkey means for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar again today on worries about Turkey. While the pressure from this source might not last long, we think that the outlook is fairly poor... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks unlikely to respond to FX weakness EM currencies have come under pressure over the past few days as Turkey’s crisis has escalated, but history suggests that such sentiment-driven sell-offs tend to be short-lived. We wouldn’t expect the... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) The latest data show that Saudi Arabia still has plenty of room to increase production if it needed to offset falls in Iran and Venezuela. As such, the group’s production should continue to rise, at... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
