UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investors turn even more bearish on metals For the most part, metals prices declined in August in the wake of escalating trade tensions and signs that economic growth in China is losing momentum. Negative investor sentiment exacerbated the... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The surge in the ISM manufacturing index in August to a 14-year high is hard to square with other evidence, which indicates that growth in the factory sector is slowing. The details suggest that... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs slip further Global manufacturing growth continued to lose momentum in August, according to the latest PMIs, though they still point to world GDP growth holding up reasonably well in Q3. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth continues to weaken The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in August adds to the signs that EM growth lost momentum in Q3. The surveys also show that price pressures are building in parts of the emerging world. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of Catalan autonomy Greater autonomy for Catalonia would probably have a detrimental impact on Spain’s public finances. But it would reduce calls for secession, and therefore limit the risk of a renewed and potentially... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Iran concerns boost oil prices August was a good month for energy commodity prices. Oil prices jumped as investors focused on the prospect of lower supply from Iran while the price of US natural gas ticked up as stocks remained... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: how close is a sovereign default? The recent collapse in the Argentine peso has raised concerns about a sovereign default. As things stand, we think it’s most likely that the government will be able to service its upcoming debts. That... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in July, of 0.2% m/m, provides further evidence that the economy’s recovery from the truck drivers’ strike in May has been soft. However, leading... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the low level of uncertainty in the euro-zone last? Uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy in the euro-zone is unusually low. While it is unlikely to return to the levels seen during the financial crisis or euro-zone debt... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy formally entered recession in Q2 driven by another poor performance from the agricultural sector. We expect the economy to embark on a recovery over the rest of this year, but a... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.) Today’s decline in the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI suggests that the improvement in construction activity in July was short lived. Commercial construction activity fared slightly better than the... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Aug.) In August, Swiss inflation was unchanged at its joint-highest level in over eight years. But underlying price pressures are subdued, and we think that falling oil prices and exchange rate effects will... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs for the Gulf economies suggest that fiscal stimulus has continued to support a recovery in Saudi Arabia, but weaker external demand is weighing on growth in the UAE. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil bucks the negative trend Most commodity prices fell in August on the back of ongoing global trade tensions and worries over an economic slowdown in China. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
