Africa Economics Update Africa & China: Putting the Focac summit in context Attention focused on China-Africa ties this week as leaders from across the continent met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a major summit. In this Update we attempt to situate the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while before hiking again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to increase interest rates at its meeting on 13th September so soon after the last rise. In fact, given our assumption that a Brexit deal will only be... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The decline in Brazilian inflation in August, to 4.2% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Copom won’t raise interest rates at its meeting this month. Moreover, core inflation still looks quite soft... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt sends mixed signals, Bahrain gets breathing room Egypt’s finance minister stated this week that the government will continue to prioritise bringing down its high debt-to-GDP ratio, but recent developments have raised fresh concerns that the appetite... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indonesian rupiah? Supporting the rupiah is increasingly becoming the central pre-occupation for Bank Indonesia and the government. We think the central bank will raise interest rates at least twice more before the end... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Services sector makes up for industry’s weakness The survey evidence suggests that the economy has maintained its momentum in Q3 thus far. The improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in August came as a bit of a relief after the recent run of... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity stays flat New buyer enquiries, new sales instructions and newly agreed sales all held steady over the month. As a result, there are few reasons to expect a pick-up in either mortgage approvals or transactions... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumer spending growth to regain momentum While elevated inflation weighed on consumer spending in the first half of 2018, a modest recovery in spending growth is in the pipeline. As the labour market continues to tighten, wage growth will... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for equities from protectionism Worries about protectionism have clearly weighed on equity markets in much of the world recently, and this will probably remain the case. What’s more, we suspect that protectionism concerns will start... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to raise rates in December Despite the more dovish tone of today’s policy announcement, the Riksbank looks likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then tighten more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) This morning’s GDP data and the timelier surveys show that the Swiss economy is growing at a fairly strong pace. But inflationary pressures remain subdued. As a result, we still think that the SNB... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank likely to raise interest rates in October While the Bank of Canada left its interest rates unchanged today it appears to be heading for a hike in October, although a serious breakdown in the NAFTA negotiations could result in a last minute... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic impact of recent market falls The macro impact of the recent falls in Asian markets is likely to be relatively small for most economies. The exceptions are the Philippines and Indonesia, where weaker currencies have forced... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
