US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) The gradual contraction in mortgage demand continued in August, with applications for both refinancing and home purchase loans seeing month-on-month falls. To date, the drop in home purchase demand... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp widening in the nominal trade deficit to a five-month high of $50.1bn in July, from $45.7bn, suggests that the big boost to GDP growth from net exports in the second quarter will be reversed... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.1% y/y in August, combined with Governor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments yesterday, will add fuel to expectations for an interest rate hike. But with underlying price... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit in July to just $0.1bn, from June’s $0.7bn, suggests that economic growth might hold up a bit better than we expected in the third quarter. 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Re-visiting the iron ore forecast Previously volatile iron ore prices have barely moved in the last six months. Despite ample supply, strong growth in China’s steel production supported prices. That said, we expect steel output to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property developers are turning more cautious China’s land market has been on a tear during the past couple of years. But with officials now clamping down on the cash handouts to shantytown residents that have been supporting property demand... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: BNM unlikely to change policy With growth easing and inflation very low, Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to leave its main policy rate on hold at 3.25% today was no surprise. While the risks are skewed towards looser policy, we... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Aug.) The improvement in August’s Markit/CIPS report on services came as a bit of a relief after the recent run of poor data on the economy and suggested that the services sector is holding up better than... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the sales tax hike be delayed again? Japan’s government has long argued that the sales tax hike scheduled for next year is needed to improve the fiscal position. With the economy performing extremely well at the moment, Mr Abe has no... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) July’s euro-zone retail sales data imply that the sector had a slow start to Q3, but the timelier indicators are more encouraging. And the message from August’s PMI surveys was positive for the euro... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: fresh pound weakness still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt appears to have intervened to support the pound in recent months, but we expect the authorities to loosen their grip over the next couple of years. We have pencilled in a 10%... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate hikes The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% flagged that a tightening cycle will begin in the coming months. We remain comfortable with... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in August, in large part due to another fall in food inflation. But more important from the policy perspective, core inflation is likely to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
