Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will stronger growth in the Gulf boost the rest of MENA? We expect that growth will strengthen in the Gulf over the coming quarters, but any potential boost to the rest of the MENA region is likely to be modest. While remittance flows might pick up, trade... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slowdown ahead Global economic growth has held up quite well in recent months despite the sell-off in equity markets, but we expect it to slow over the next two years. The US economy is likely to cool as monetary... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook The hawkish tone of the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” announcements have helped to push up interest rate expectations a little and have fuelled a rise in sterling over the past week. But we doubt... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Still few signs of pick-up in productivity growth There are few signs that the recent tax cuts have boosted the economy’s supply side and, with business investment growth moderating, the prospect of a marked pick-up in productivity growth is fading... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US midterms unlikely to trigger a big market reaction We don’t expect today’s midterm elections in the US to have a major bearing on its stock market, even if the Republicans retain both chambers of Congress or the Democrats do very well. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What if the prediction markets are wrong about the US midterms? 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack House price inflation heading to 1% The outlook for the housing market is subdued. In the near term, rate rises and signs of growing lender caution will add to the headwinds facing the market. That said, at least house prices are now... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales fall again New and existing home sales fell again in September, as higher mortgage interest rates weighed on demand. But those homes that are selling are doing so quickly, and the strong labour market argues... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Precious outperform base After strong gains in September, most base metals prices fell in the past month, as global growth concerns made investors more risk averse. Against this backdrop, precious metals generally gained... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: soft labour market temporary, rates to rise further The recent uptick in Chilean unemployment has prompted some analysts to suggest that interest rates may not rise much further. But the central bank doesn’t seem too concerned and we think that any... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Mozambique’s debt deal The Mozambican government’s preliminary agreement to restructure its eurobond looks like an important first step out of its long-running debt saga. But even if this goes ahead, significant fiscal... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) October’s PMI data suggest that most of the major euro-zone economies will perform a little better in Q4 than in Q3. The exception is Italy, where the PMI implies that output contracted. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Sep.) Sweden’s monthly private sector production data suggest that overall GDP growth slowed in Q3. But with the timelier surveys continuing to paint a fairly positive picture, we remain fairly optimistic... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging phone charges another headwind for BoJ The steep cut to mobile phone charges announced by Japan’s largest wireless operator last week means that consumer price inflation may average only 1.0% next year rather than the 1.2% we had been... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
