Commodities Chart Pack Sugar on a real high, but oil prices slump Commodity prices, including oil, fell on concerns about softer economic growth and some appreciation of the US dollar. We expect a weaker demand outlook to continue to weigh on the prices of the more... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown far from over Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for October were a mixed bag, with steep falls in the euro-zone and UK sitting alongside small increases in other major economies. In aggregate, the surveys add to evidence... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Rates likely to rise faster than markets expect after a Brexit deal 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime retail rents increasingly likely to plateau The number of retail markets seeing prime rents stagnate or fall is at the highest level since 2009. But there are good reasons why that number is more likely to rise than to reverse over the next... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month low of 57.7 in October, from 59.8, leaves it still at a relatively high level by past standards. Nevertheless, it does suggest that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: Still scope for more tightening in 2019 The forecasts accompanying today’s Czech monetary policy meeting imply that the CNB’s tightening cycle is now finished. Following seven interest hikes, we agree that the bulk of tightening has already... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hints rates will rise quicker than markets expect The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates more quickly than markets expect, if a Brexit deal is struck. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Last month’s rebound in the US dollar is unlikely to last Although some of things that triggered a rebound in the US dollar in October are likely to continue to underpin the currency in 2019, we still think that it will weaken then as the Fed stops raising... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The sharper-than-expected 1.8% m/m contraction in Brazilian industrial production in September won’t prevent the economy as a whole from strengthening in Q3. But it reinforces concerns about the scale... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Causes of weakening housing demand Rising interest rates, declining house price expectations and cuts to the tax advantages of owning a home have all weighed on housing demand since the turn of the year. Of these, the drop in house... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in the manufacturing PMI to its lowest level since immediately after the EU referendum suggests that the sector will drag on growth in Q4 as Brexit uncertainty weighs on investment and export... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weak commodities demand The latest survey data out of China paint a subdued picture of economic growth and offer little support to the prices of industrial and energy commodities. What’s more, any policy stimulus to boost... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) According to the Nationwide, house price growth hit a five-year low in October. That result is in line with our expectation that house price inflation will subside to 1% or so next year. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Although Swiss headline inflation edged back up in October, the core rate was unchanged at a very low level. And as surveys of both manufacturers and consumers suggest that price pressures are muted... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB on hold until Bolsonaro’s reform plans take shape The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) statement from last night’s meeting hints that Copom is waiting to see if president-elect Jair Bolsonaro can deliver on his reform promise when he takes office at... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
