Latin America Economics Weekly Upcoming Amlo flashpoints, Brazil’s pension hurdles The decision by Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to cancel the Texcoco airport construction spooked local markets, and upcoming decisions on the 2019 budget and oil field... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly PMI hints at slowing momentum While the data this week revealed that GDP was better than expected in August, the growth rate nevertheless slowed. Combined with September’s trade data which showed a fall in manufacturing exports... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Midterms will split Congress; Fed on hold until Dec. The betting odds suggest that there are few uncertainties surrounding the broad outcomes of Tuesday’s midterm elections, with the Democrats likely to win control of the House while the Republicans... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Problems mount for Pakistan as Khan heads off to China Inflation can now be added to the list of problems facing Pakistan after figures published today showed headline inflation rose to a four-year high last month. Meanwhile, the chances of an improvement... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Int. Trade (Sep.) October’s further decline in wage growth is a worrying signal for policymakers, with real wage growth stagnating just as the Bank takes a more hawkish approach to normalising policy. 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & International Trade (Sep.) The 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October, following a more modest 118,000 gain in September, confirms that Hurricane Florence temporarily depressed employment in September. The BLS suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Short-term pain, long-term gain for EM equities? Although the gap between the valuations of equities in emerging and developed markets has widened recently, and is now quite large by historical standards, this is no guarantee that the former will... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) October’s rise in the headline PMI for UK construction reversed a three-month downward trend, but does not change our view of continued caution about prospects for the rental growth. 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to tighten faster than investors expect While the minutes to the Riksbank’s October meeting all but confirmed that interest rates will start to rise in the coming months, a December hike is not a done deal. But regardless of whether the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s problems shouldn’t stop euro’s revival in 2019 Although Italy’s problems are likely to continue to weigh on the euro next year, we still think that the currency will strengthen against the dollar in response to a favourable shift in monetary... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Figures suggest weak recovery in Nigeria & S. Africa Activity data released this week supported our view that economic conditions in Nigeria and South Africa were very weak in recent months. We think official GDP figures due out in late November and... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget package will boost growth (and rates) The fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Budget has prompted us to raise our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates. In our base case, which assumes a Brexit deal is secured, we now expect... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q3 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends After a lacklustre first half of the year, global gold demand rose in Q3, albeit marginally. We think that consumer demand may well remain soft in Q4, but the upturn in ETF holdings in October could... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
