Commodities Update November WASDE was all about China At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appeared bearish for the grains and soybeans markets. However, most of the upward revisions to stocks and supply can be explained by revisions to... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Gridlock increasingly likely after Sessions firing The results of this week’s midterm elections were in line with expectations, but President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire his Attorney General Jeff Sessions would seem to reduce the odds... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy-EU tensions set to intensify Tensions between Italy and the EU are likely to escalate next week. Indeed, the Government has until Tuesday to submit a re-drafted budget, and despite coming under pressure from European policymakers... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The larger-than-expected gain in Mexican industrial production in September chimes with the strong preliminary GDP data for Q3 released late last month, and supports our view that economic growth as a... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q3 bright spots fade, better lies ahead The past week’s data cast a shadow over some of the few remaining bright spots in Q3. Next week’s GDP release is very likely to show that Japan’s economy contracted for a second time this year... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Swiss stock market likely to fall less than most next year We think that the global economy will slow in 2019 and take a toll on equities generally. If history is any guide, Swiss stocks will not be spared. But two factors suggest that they will hold up... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European cycle still has further to go Office occupier demand was again strong this quarter, driving vacancy rates lower and rental values higher in a number of markets. The retail and industrial sectors saw only limited rental growth... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s mixed surveys, Mozambique’s debt The raft of survey releases in South Africa this week provided contradictory messages, but on balance we think that conditions continued to improve at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the news that the... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth slows again Investor demand for commercial property assets in the euro-zone continues to see prime yields edge lower, particularly in the office and industrial sectors, albeit falls of 4bps and 7bps respectively... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas to hold on to its gains We expect the average price of US natural gas to rise in 2019 on a combination of low stocks and strong growth in demand, both domestic and external. This will more than absorb steadily increasing... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has a weaker ruble helped Russia’s economy? There’s little evidence so far to suggest that the fall in the ruble this year has boosted Russia’s economy, but we think the positive effects will begin to materialise in 2019. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q3) The GDP figures confirmed that economic growth accelerated in Q3. But it seems unlikely that the economy will be able to keep up this pace with Brexit uncertainty hanging over it. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
