Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data suggest that the Norges Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates again. We expect it to wait until next March before making its next move, and... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt caught in a trap We think that cobalt prices will rebound, by approximately 30%, between now and mid-2019, aided by a temporary halt to cobalt sales and exports from a major operation in the DRC. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Mexican inflation in October confirms that September’s rise was just a blip, and we expect the headline rate to decline further in the coming quarters. Today’s data won’t be enough to... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car emission tests not the key driver of CEE Q3 slowdown The net impact of a new vehicle emissions testing procedure on Q3 GDP growth appears to have been minimal in Poland and the Czech Republic, but could have knocked up to 0.4%-pts off quarter-on-quarter... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China stimulus will not prevent global slowdown China is the only major economy which is likely to implement a significant policy stimulus in the coming year. However, its impact on the rest of the world will be small. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation decline from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y in October, but with the headline rate likely to resume its upward trend this month and recent labour market data improving, we still think that another... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Sep.) South African manufacturing and mining data for September released today support our view that the economy pulled out of recession in Q3, but that growth was very weak. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices likely to prove unsustainable We believe that the price of US steel is currently too high, despite the 25% tariff on imports, and that slower growth in demand and higher domestic supply should prompt prices to fall back in 2019. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Can regional office rental growth pick up further? Subdued office rental value growth in Scotland is weighing on the Rest of the UK aggregate. Although a material upturn in Scottish rental value growth seems unlikely, the outlook for other regional... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Import demand proves resilient, for now China’s commodity import volumes generally held up well last month, despite the ongoing slowdown in broader economic activity. However, all the signs point to weaker import growth in the coming months... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Falling buyer confidence and subdued house price expectations will keep the housing market flat-lining until the end of the year. Rising interest rates will then prevent it from gaining traction in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates set to stay on hold in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia today left interest rates unchanged at 3.25% and gave no hint in its accompanying statement that it is in a rush to change its policy stance anytime soon. Whereas the consensus is... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
