UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Shareholders’ concerns about higher Treasury yields make sense 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt risk building Kenya’s plans for another US$2.5bn eurobond have added to our concerns about its burgeoning public debt. While a major debt crisis should be avoided if the country’s economy continues to grow rapidly... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s FX reserve plan doesn’t stack up Concerns that “super minister” Paulo Guedes’ plan to reduce the Brazilian government’s interest payments by selling FX reserves would increase external vulnerabilities look overdone. However, the plan... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: two years on The benefits of the government’s demonetisation policy should be evident by now, two years after the shock announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being withdrawn. But the promised... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Consensus too optimistic on the loonie With investors already pricing in three more rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, it’s hard to see much support for the consensus view that the Canadian dollar will rise by 5% from here. We think that... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) The big drop in the Markit/CIPS services PMI suggests that GDP growth slowed sharply at the start of Q4, which could be a sign that Brexit uncertainty is increasingly weighing on activity. So long as... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s PMI data suggest that the fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, including the threat of sanctions by the US, has had no discernible impact on Saudi Arabia’s economy... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil slumps as supply fears fade Oil prices plummeted in October on the back of clear signs of a pick-up in supply, rising US crude stocks and concerns about slower global growth. US sanctions on Iran’s oil may bolster prices in the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes turn to the US The US is set to take centre stage next week as it re-imposes sanctions on Iran’s oil on Monday. While this may spark bargain hunting, after this week’s slump in prices, any relief rally should be... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests highlight Italy risks The EU bank stress tests suggest that even in a severe economic downturn, the region’s largest lenders would remain solvent. That said, the EBA’s very pessimistic “adverse scenario” might still be too... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The fiscal winds change, higher rates on the horizon Philip “the fiscal hawk” Hammond was surprisingly generous in the Budget on Monday, spending his entire windfall from the downward revision to the OBR’s borrowing forecast. This means that rather than... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss outlook darkens, Riksbank rate rises ahead Surveys published this week suggest that the Swiss economy is faltering after a strong first half of 2018, while inflationary pressures remain weak. This supports our view that the SNB will keep... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Budapest offices to see one last hurrah in 2019 Delays on development projects mean that demand will comfortably exceed completions next year, driving rental values higher again. Thereafter, annual completions could reach in excess of 300,000 sqm... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Strong US employment report bolsters case for December hike 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Politburo signals policy support The Politburo statement this week gave a clear signal that further policy support for China’s economy is on the way. But with headwinds building, we don’t expect to see clear signs of economic... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
