Asia Economics Update Which countries are running out of fiscal firepower? Most governments in Emerging Asia have room to support their economies by loosening fiscal policy further in the event that growth continues to disappoint. However, a few countries, namely Malaysia... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit timer running out The next few weeks of Brexit negotiations will prove critical in determining whether a deal will be wrapped up by Christmas. We would not be surprised if the talks dragged on into the New Year, in... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will housing drag the economy under again? The housing market is unlikely to cause another crisis as it did in 2007. But the slowdown in housing activity is a clear sign that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are starting to take their toll on the... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to make of Saudi Arabia’s push for oil output cuts Saudi Arabia’s push for a fresh round of oil output cuts isn’t a done deal and a sustained unilateral cut is unlikely. Even so, it adds to the evidence of a more erratic approach to oil policy under... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More trouble ahead for Japan’s stock market We expect the stock market in Japan to come under more fire in 2019, as equity prices tumble in the US; the yen strengthens; and the Trump administration continues to exert pressure on China. Our... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) A renewed drop in food inflation pulled down headline inflation in October, but with core inflation rising again we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower global growth won’t stop UK rebound Concern that increasing Brexit uncertainty is causing the economy to slow sharply, as indicated by the slide in the PMI survey, look overdone. Indeed, other indicators are less downbeat. And while... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation in October, taking it above the upper bound of the central bank’s end-year target range, raises the risk that policymakers will hike interest rates at this week... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs weigh on imports, but boost exports A closer look at the trade data for October bolsters our suspicions that firms have been frontloading shipments from China to the US. Meanwhile, President Xi opened this week’s import expo with an... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Bear market in oil to persist in 2019 The price of oil (Brent) has dropped by around a fifth from its October peak and we expect it to continue to fall to $60 per barrel by end-2019. Supporting this view is our forecast that the oil... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Under-35 homeownership rate will soon flatten out Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth slowing again, Brexit backstop bickering We don’t find the apparent slowdown in economic growth at the start of Q4 too worrying. After all, growth was always likely to ease as the boost to the retail sector from hot weather and the football... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central Bank of Iceland hikes, Riksbank to follow The Central Bank of Iceland this week raised interest rates slightly sooner than we had anticipated and we expect it to tighten policy further in the coming months. The Riksbank is also set to raise... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
