Energy Update Oil supply fears allayed for now The last-minute waivers on US sanctions granted to eight of Iran’s largest customers suggest supply in the oil market should be more than ample, underpinning our forecast of a further fall in oil... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: More hawkish tone suggests rate hikes are near The relatively more hawkish tone adopted by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference today suggests that the start of a monetary tightening cycle isn’t too far away. We think that... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased, boosted by an unexpectedly large jump in US oil output and a small rise in net-imports of crude. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks edged lower. The latest data are consistent with... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Post-US election rebound in European equities unlikely to last 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5% for the first time in over seven years in October, helping to explain why home purchase mortgage demand fell to a two-year low in October. If we are right in... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Car emissions tests not a big deal for UK growth in Q3 While new EU emissions tests for cars appear to be responsible for a slowdown in growth in the euro-zone in Q3, we doubt it will have had much impact on UK GDP growth. However, the tests do look... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the big rise in TIPS yields The big rise in the real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the past year or so is a logical response to tighter Fed policy than investors were expecting. But it is... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data rounded off a weak quarter for the sector, implying that overall household spending rose only marginally in Q3. Nevertheless, we still think that the outlook... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The Halifax measure of house price growth fell to a 5-year low in October, echoing last week’s Nationwide index and supporting our view of a subdued outlook for UK house prices. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The PBOC appears to have intervened directly in the foreign exchange market again in October. But its intervention remains small in scale and seems calibrated to slow the renminbi’s fall rather than... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The acceleration in wage growth in September was driven by volatile bonus payments whereas growth in base pay slowed rather sharply. The final reading may yet show stronger growth in regular earnings... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
