Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Signs of things to come in a week of market turmoil We think that this week’s turbulence provides a reasonable guide to the trends to watch for in markets next year. In particular, while both the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields have started to drop a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal means weaker growth in the Gulf in 2019 The deal reached by OPEC to reduce oil output means that the economic slowdown in the Gulf that we had expected from the middle of next year will now occur earlier and be more severe. Accordingly, we... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update In search of a return … from something While 2018 has been a very difficult year for “long-only” investors to make money from anything, 2019 may be a bit less challenging. Our view is that US government bonds will offer some reward next... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The puzzle of low wage growth One explanation for the persistent weakness of wage growth in Japan, despite the tightness of the labour market, is that employment growth has been skewed towards positions with low hours and low pay... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves jar with near-term economic prospects The big market moves over the past week – with stock markets and bond yields both falling sharply – present something of a dilemma for our own views. We have long expected an economic slowdown in 2019... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to hike, but doesn’t know when The Bank of Canada reiterated this week that it intends to raise the policy rate at least three more times, but acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the pace of those hikes. Investors appear to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The 94,000 surge in employment was nine times stronger than the consensus forecast, but the gains were led partly by Alberta where the outlook has recently deteriorated markedly. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the current heightened nervousness, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in November is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp rate hike, to 8.25%, at this month’s meeting still seems more likely than... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU tensions rise, Iceland’s economy stagnates Switzerland’s Federal Council has been debating this week on whether to align itself more closely with the EU, a decision with serious implications for the country’s status as an international... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war on hold? Inflation falls in Thailand The cease fire struck almost a week ago between China and the US has lifted hopes that a damaging trade war between the two countries will be averted. But even if the truce beaks down, we don’t think... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Will rental growth justify the fall in industrial yields? With all of the hype around the potential impact of online retailing on industrial occupier demand, there has been a big shift in the relative pricing of industrial assets. Although rents in the UK... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish MPC to sound dovish, CEE made strong start to Q4 Signs of softer inflation and weak economic activity will almost certainly prompt the Turkish MPC to strike a dovish tone at Thursday’s meeting. Investors seem to share our concerns that policymakers... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in November, to 4.1% y/y (from 4.6% y/y in October), reinforces our view that Copom won’t rush to tighten policy. We expect the Selic rate to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
