Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth in Germany to run out of steam With Germany’s labour market close to capacity, limited scope for strong employment growth will hurt office occupier demand. As new completions hit the market at the same time, we see rental growth... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: external position improving but growth to slow The collapse in the rupee and an aggressive tightening of monetary policy is leading to a welcome fall in Pakistan’s external imbalances. However, with most of the adjustment taking place through a... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Q3 GDP growth acceleration driven by investment Stronger investment drove a pick-up in GDP growth across Central Europe in Q3, despite a big drag from net trade. But investment is likely to lose steam over the coming quarters, which is part of the... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Slowing Chinese growth does not bode well for prices Steel and iron ore prices fell precipitously in November, as the reality of slowing Chinese demand growth finally filtered through into softer prices. We think that global demand will continue to... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The drop in the 10-year Treasury yield over the past month has brought down mortgage interest rates. In turn, mortgage applications for home purchase have risen to close to a five-month high. Mortgage... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch What to expect from the OPEC meeting We expect OPEC and its allies to agree to cut oil output at this week’s OPEC meeting. This should at least put a floor under prices and may, depending on the size of the cut, boost prices. But with... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMIs suggested that the weakness of GDP growth in Q3 was more than just a blip. But October’s rise in retail sales provides some comfort and we expect consumer spending... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) It is not too surprising that we have now reached the point where the Brexit shenanigans are weighing more heavily on activity. But we suspect the Markit/CIPS survey is overstating the slowdown in... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has a little further to run The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept rates on hold today, but continued to flag several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and maintained the hawkish description of... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Oct.) Sweden’s private sector production data for October suggest that the economy bounced back after Q3’s contraction. This reduces the risk of the Riksbank delaying its first rate hike beyond February. 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.75% last night suggested that this was only a brief pause in its tightening cycle. We continue to think that... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks can’t prop up the Egyptian pound for much longer The Egyptian authorities appear to have leaned on state-owned banks to sell FX assets to offset pressure on the pound recently, but this can only be sustained for a few more months at most. The... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: what’s at stake? Brazil’s incoming government has given little detail about its proposed (and much-needed) reforms to the country’s pension system. But stabilising the public debt ratio would require reform at the... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
